Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Observations vs. Model(s) ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV' LP PDV' NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- CESM2 piControl A 0.74/0.60 0.66/1.55 0.79/0.75 0.71/0.56 0.37/1.64 0.76/0.12 0.81/1.14 0.91/0.66 0.97/0.62 0.78/0.14 0.91/0.21 0.81/0.71 CESM2 piControl B 0.70/0.74 0.71/1.64 0.67/0.94 0.68/0.55 -0.06/2.22 0.80/0.12 0.83/1.29 0.92/0.68 0.97/0.59 0.79/0.14 0.91/0.21 0.79/0.81 CESM2 piControl C 0.74/0.68 0.75/1.41 0.73/0.92 0.50/0.68 0.20/1.48 0.82/0.11 0.83/1.24 0.92/0.64 0.98/0.40 0.79/0.14 0.91/0.21 0.81/0.70 CESM2 piControl D 0.72/0.74 0.72/1.57 0.64/0.94 0.52/0.67 0.43/1.12 0.83/0.11 0.86/1.34 0.94/0.66 0.98/0.44 0.78/0.14 0.90/0.22 0.81/0.69 CESM2 piControl E 0.75/0.82 0.67/2.09 0.64/1.06 0.33/0.80 0.52/1.35 0.76/0.14 0.86/1.20 0.95/0.51 0.97/0.48 0.76/0.14 0.90/0.25 0.80/0.78 CESM2 piControl F 0.75/0.77 0.68/1.96 0.63/1.10 0.49/0.74 0.60/1.22 0.77/0.14 0.85/1.29 0.95/0.60 0.97/0.50 0.77/0.14 0.90/0.23 0.81/0.76 CESM2 piControl G 0.75/0.73 0.69/1.84 0.60/0.94 0.65/0.52 0.50/1.79 0.79/0.13 0.85/1.25 0.94/0.58 0.97/0.52 0.78/0.13 0.91/0.23 0.81/0.76 CESM2 piControl H 0.72/0.71 0.70/1.56 0.69/1.01 0.72/0.51 0.58/0.86 0.79/0.11 0.86/1.21 0.95/0.54 0.98/0.45 0.81/0.13 0.91/0.20 0.84/0.63 CESM2 piControl I 0.77/0.74 0.73/1.78 0.60/1.17 0.78/0.70 0.16/1.12 0.75/0.13 0.86/1.26 0.91/0.71 0.97/0.51 0.79/0.14 0.91/0.21 0.81/0.73 CESM2 piControl J 0.68/0.76 0.64/1.90 0.65/1.24 0.77/0.63 0.05/1.67 0.74/0.12 0.87/1.37 0.94/0.66 0.97/0.46 0.80/0.15 0.90/0.21 0.80/0.80 CESM2 piControl K 0.75/0.63 0.69/1.70 0.61/1.18 0.70/0.60 -0.06/2.08 0.78/0.12 0.84/1.48 0.93/0.85 0.97/0.64 0.80/0.13 0.90/0.23 0.79/0.84 CESM2 piControl L 0.76/0.57 0.68/1.39 0.62/1.01 0.64/0.54 -0.03/1.95 0.81/0.11 0.85/1.44 0.92/0.78 0.97/0.57 0.80/0.14 0.91/0.21 0.80/0.76 CESM2 piControl M 0.75/0.63 0.73/1.36 0.60/1.05 0.55/0.61 0.39/1.06 0.82/0.12 0.86/1.16 0.90/0.77 0.98/0.57 0.79/0.14 0.91/0.22 0.81/0.67 CESM2 piControl N 0.71/0.65 0.68/1.35 0.76/0.79 0.64/0.52 0.38/1.32 0.84/0.10 0.88/1.01 0.88/0.79 0.97/0.52 0.78/0.14 0.92/0.19 0.82/0.65 CESM2 piControl O 0.74/0.63 0.72/1.42 0.73/0.93 0.63/0.60 0.46/1.37 0.83/0.11 0.84/1.01 0.84/0.86 0.97/0.51 0.79/0.14 0.92/0.20 0.81/0.68 CESM2 piControl P 0.77/0.61 0.67/1.50 0.78/0.91 0.59/0.71 0.42/1.69 0.76/0.12 0.86/1.07 0.94/0.62 0.98/0.44 0.81/0.14 0.91/0.20 0.82/0.72 CESM2 piControl Q 0.77/0.64 0.71/1.40 0.79/0.93 0.61/0.66 0.50/1.31 0.74/0.13 0.91/0.93 0.91/0.80 0.98/0.43 0.79/0.15 0.90/0.21 0.83/0.68 CESM2 piControl R 0.70/0.75 0.74/1.32 0.81/0.76 0.49/0.66 0.47/1.12 0.70/0.13 0.91/1.01 0.91/0.86 0.98/0.45 0.78/0.15 0.91/0.21 0.82/0.66 CESM2 piControl S 0.72/0.76 0.71/1.66 0.71/1.00 0.59/0.63 0.29/1.35 0.79/0.13 0.93/0.86 0.90/0.76 0.96/0.71 0.78/0.14 0.90/0.22 0.81/0.72 CESM2 piControl T 0.72/0.78 0.67/1.88 0.63/1.22 0.59/0.71 0.40/1.62 0.82/0.12 0.89/0.91 0.89/0.70 0.95/0.65 0.79/0.13 0.91/0.21 0.80/0.78 CESM2 piControl U 0.76/0.74 0.69/1.70 0.72/1.00 0.70/0.61 0.64/0.92 0.83/0.13 0.85/1.05 0.91/0.68 0.96/0.61 0.80/0.13 0.90/0.23 0.82/0.67 CESM2 piControl V 0.73/0.71 0.63/1.81 0.70/0.94 0.67/0.56 0.46/1.19 0.83/0.11 0.82/1.21 0.95/0.45 0.96/0.64 0.81/0.14 0.90/0.21 0.82/0.68 CESM2 piControl W 0.70/0.71 0.63/1.69 0.61/1.33 0.63/0.75 0.53/1.24 0.83/0.10 0.85/1.16 0.95/0.47 0.94/0.83 0.79/0.15 0.89/0.22 0.81/0.74 CESM2 piControl X 0.72/0.72 0.70/1.64 0.63/1.30 0.55/0.69 0.50/1.23 0.84/0.10 0.86/1.01 0.95/0.45 0.94/0.85 0.78/0.15 0.90/0.22 0.81/0.72 CESM2 piControl Y 0.67/0.77 0.70/1.84 0.67/1.21 0.60/0.61 0.54/0.97 0.86/0.09 0.81/1.21 0.94/0.63 0.94/0.83 0.78/0.15 0.91/0.22 0.80/0.71 CESM2 piControl Z 0.70/0.71 0.74/1.69 0.72/0.91 0.72/0.47 0.40/1.45 0.85/0.10 0.86/1.06 0.95/0.59 0.96/0.60 0.78/0.14 0.91/0.21 0.83/0.69 CESM2 piControl AA 0.60/0.74 0.72/1.43 0.72/0.80 0.72/0.45 0.52/1.02 0.84/0.10 0.89/1.02 0.92/0.62 0.98/0.55 0.79/0.15 0.90/0.20 0.83/0.62 CESM2 piControl AB 0.75/0.59 0.72/1.34 0.74/0.74 0.54/0.56 0.53/1.11 0.82/0.11 0.90/0.99 0.91/0.66 0.97/0.50 0.80/0.14 0.91/0.20 0.83/0.61 CESM2 piControl AC 0.70/0.72 0.62/1.79 0.69/1.01 0.72/0.54 0.53/0.86 0.82/0.11 0.88/0.99 0.94/0.57 0.95/0.73 0.80/0.13 0.90/0.22 0.82/0.65 CESM2 piControl AD 0.69/0.76 0.57/1.89 0.73/1.11 0.73/0.53 0.45/0.86 0.79/0.12 0.87/0.88 0.95/0.55 0.94/0.79 0.79/0.14 0.90/0.22 0.81/0.67 CESM2 piControl AE 0.71/0.65 0.72/1.38 0.73/1.13 0.49/0.60 0.46/1.04 0.78/0.12 0.90/0.94 0.96/0.50 0.96/0.80 0.80/0.14 0.90/0.23 0.82/0.66 CESM2 piControl AF 0.69/0.68 0.66/1.79 0.78/0.71 0.47/0.64 0.34/1.12 0.80/0.11 0.87/1.12 0.95/0.51 0.98/0.65 0.79/0.15 0.90/0.22 0.82/0.67 CESM2 piControl AG 0.74/0.69 0.66/1.91 0.78/0.78 0.70/0.60 0.42/1.12 0.82/0.11 0.87/1.24 0.95/0.54 0.97/0.63 0.79/0.14 0.91/0.21 0.83/0.68 CESM2 piControl AH 0.79/0.59 0.73/1.53 0.63/0.96 0.69/0.71 0.40/1.29 0.82/0.11 0.84/1.10 0.92/0.67 0.98/0.56 0.78/0.14 0.91/0.21 0.82/0.69 CESM2 piControl AI 0.74/0.69 0.71/1.58 0.68/0.98 0.72/0.64 0.46/1.03 0.81/0.11 0.86/0.94 0.92/0.74 0.98/0.55 0.79/0.14 0.90/0.22 0.82/0.66 CESM2 piControl AJ 0.73/0.69 0.72/1.50 0.58/0.96 0.60/0.58 0.16/1.59 0.80/0.12 0.85/0.95 0.92/0.76 0.98/0.60 0.79/0.14 0.89/0.24 0.80/0.72 CESM2 piControl AK 0.69/0.71 0.66/1.79 0.63/0.85 0.68/0.60 0.41/0.99 0.81/0.12 0.85/0.99 0.95/0.62 0.96/0.66 0.81/0.13 0.89/0.24 0.81/0.66 CESM2 piControl AL 0.67/0.77 0.65/2.06 0.71/1.05 0.70/0.62 0.61/0.73 0.81/0.12 0.85/0.98 0.94/0.52 0.93/0.79 0.80/0.13 0.88/0.25 0.81/0.68 CESM2 piControl AM 0.67/0.72 0.62/1.91 0.71/1.15 0.77/0.63 0.62/0.71 0.82/0.11 0.83/0.97 0.90/0.64 0.94/0.67 0.80/0.14 0.89/0.24 0.81/0.67 CESM2 piControl AN 0.64/0.78 0.61/1.95 0.70/1.10 0.79/0.58 0.41/1.01 0.81/0.11 0.86/0.91 0.90/0.69 0.96/0.54 0.78/0.15 0.89/0.23 0.80/0.69 CESM2 piControl AO 0.68/0.74 0.61/1.82 0.69/1.12 0.77/0.55 0.46/1.05 0.82/0.11 0.82/1.14 0.91/0.70 0.97/0.47 0.78/0.15 0.91/0.21 0.81/0.69 CESM2 piControl AP 0.63/0.79 0.65/1.79 0.73/1.07 0.67/0.54 0.55/1.16 0.81/0.11 0.83/1.30 0.91/0.79 0.95/0.69 0.81/0.14 0.90/0.21 0.80/0.73 CESM2 piControl AQ 0.61/0.78 0.61/1.76 0.76/0.94 0.48/0.64 0.71/0.68 0.83/0.12 0.79/1.39 0.84/0.94 0.94/0.66 0.81/0.13 0.90/0.22 0.79/0.69 CESM2 piControl AR 0.63/0.74 0.64/1.66 0.77/0.94 0.39/0.73 0.66/0.72 0.79/0.12 0.84/1.12 0.80/0.95 0.96/0.69 0.83/0.13 0.90/0.22 0.79/0.68 CESM2 piControl AS 0.61/0.75 0.61/1.67 0.79/0.92 0.08/0.92 0.63/0.79 0.80/0.11 0.84/1.07 0.83/0.84 0.95/0.76 0.83/0.14 0.89/0.22 0.77/0.70 CESM2 piControl AT 0.68/0.68 0.65/1.44 0.62/1.11 0.34/0.75 0.42/1.04 0.82/0.11 0.85/0.97 0.89/0.69 0.94/0.83 0.81/0.14 0.90/0.22 0.77/0.68 CESM2 piControl AU 0.72/0.70 0.68/1.71 0.65/1.18 0.31/0.77 0.05/1.35 0.81/0.11 0.80/1.19 0.94/0.50 0.94/0.77 0.81/0.13 0.90/0.23 0.77/0.75 CESM2 piControl AV 0.75/0.69 0.69/1.96 0.61/1.23 0.69/0.68 0.17/1.52 0.81/0.11 0.80/1.09 0.92/0.61 0.95/0.73 0.81/0.13 0.91/0.24 0.79/0.77 CESM2 piControl AW 0.74/0.72 0.73/1.83 0.69/1.19 0.68/0.62 0.56/0.86 0.78/0.12 0.78/1.31 0.93/0.54 0.96/0.65 0.80/0.14 0.91/0.23 0.81/0.70 CESM2 piControl AX 0.74/0.68 0.74/1.65 0.69/1.26 0.63/0.54 0.51/0.85 0.79/0.12 0.78/1.24 0.91/0.60 0.97/0.65 0.80/0.14 0.91/0.21 0.81/0.68 CESM2 piControl AY 0.68/0.75 0.72/1.70 0.73/0.88 0.61/0.56 0.49/1.03 0.81/0.12 0.73/1.34 0.92/0.57 0.99/0.35 0.80/0.13 0.91/0.21 0.82/0.67 CESM2 piControl AZ 0.61/0.86 0.63/1.84 0.73/0.88 0.55/0.61 0.62/1.19 0.82/0.12 0.79/1.08 0.87/0.73 0.99/0.32 0.80/0.13 0.91/0.21 0.81/0.70 CESM2 piControl BA 0.70/0.75 0.69/2.07 0.67/0.94 0.69/0.54 0.33/1.70 0.83/0.11 0.87/0.87 0.91/0.67 0.98/0.36 0.80/0.13 0.90/0.24 0.82/0.74 CESM2 piControl BB 0.72/0.74 0.68/1.97 0.68/0.98 0.68/0.59 0.50/1.41 0.79/0.13 0.92/0.72 0.94/0.55 0.96/0.66 0.78/0.14 0.89/0.25 0.82/0.72 CESM2 piControl BC 0.70/0.86 0.67/1.97 0.61/1.31 0.72/0.75 0.46/1.61 0.79/0.13 0.91/0.74 0.94/0.57 0.93/0.78 0.77/0.14 0.89/0.27 0.80/0.80 CESM2 piControl BD 0.73/0.75 0.67/1.80 0.70/1.06 0.71/0.64 0.43/1.17 0.82/0.13 0.87/0.93 0.95/0.48 0.94/0.77 0.76/0.14 0.90/0.25 0.82/0.71 CESM2 piControl BE 0.74/0.73 0.68/1.80 0.73/0.81 0.67/0.62 0.39/1.00 0.82/0.12 0.86/1.25 0.93/0.73 0.98/0.57 0.75/0.14 0.90/0.24 0.82/0.69 CESM2 piControl BF 0.72/0.81 0.66/1.78 0.64/0.93 0.66/0.68 0.61/0.83 0.83/0.11 0.85/1.51 0.92/1.02 0.98/0.54 0.80/0.13 0.91/0.23 0.83/0.72 CESM2 piControl BG 0.71/0.88 0.64/2.04 0.62/1.16 0.62/0.80 0.62/0.87 0.81/0.11 0.87/1.41 0.94/0.82 0.98/0.57 0.81/0.13 0.91/0.21 0.83/0.76 CESM2 piControl BH 0.73/0.66 0.68/1.51 0.71/0.95 0.50/0.72 0.65/0.82 0.83/0.11 0.88/0.98 0.95/0.62 0.97/0.61 0.81/0.14 0.90/0.23 0.83/0.63 CESM2 piControl BI 0.68/0.67 0.70/1.56 0.72/1.11 0.54/0.65 0.65/0.86 0.82/0.11 0.86/0.95 0.93/0.53 0.97/0.53 0.80/0.14 0.89/0.22 0.82/0.64 CESM2 piControl BJ 0.67/0.76 0.71/1.64 0.70/1.08 0.62/0.59 0.65/0.89 0.82/0.11 0.86/1.14 0.92/0.56 0.97/0.46 0.81/0.13 0.90/0.23 0.82/0.66 CESM2 piControl BK 0.72/0.76 0.70/1.62 0.70/1.02 0.56/0.59 0.48/0.87 0.83/0.12 0.89/1.14 0.93/0.55 0.97/0.48 0.82/0.13 0.91/0.22 0.82/0.65 CESM2 piControl BL 0.72/0.85 0.68/1.99 0.71/1.06 0.62/0.61 0.54/1.18 0.84/0.11 0.89/1.24 0.92/0.73 0.98/0.40 0.81/0.13 0.90/0.23 0.84/0.74 CESM2 piControl BM 0.74/0.74 0.66/1.85 0.75/0.96 0.66/0.62 0.51/1.15 0.82/0.12 0.88/1.09 0.93/0.72 0.96/0.64 0.81/0.14 0.89/0.23 0.82/0.71 CESM2 piControl BN 0.75/0.65 0.75/1.62 0.75/0.77 0.58/0.60 0.23/1.21 0.80/0.13 0.84/1.30 0.94/0.75 0.97/0.51 0.79/0.14 0.89/0.24 0.81/0.69 CESM2 piControl BO 0.74/0.66 0.76/1.55 0.78/0.87 0.49/0.70 0.18/1.30 0.80/0.12 0.81/1.26 0.94/0.62 0.96/0.66 0.78/0.14 0.89/0.24 0.80/0.71 CESM2 piControl BP 0.72/0.66 0.71/1.68 0.79/0.85 0.51/0.68 0.42/1.03 0.83/0.11 0.86/1.15 0.94/0.69 0.98/0.58 0.77/0.14 0.90/0.23 0.82/0.67 CESM2 piControl BQ 0.68/0.71 0.62/1.96 0.81/0.86 0.65/0.65 0.48/1.17 0.84/0.11 0.86/1.00 0.93/0.62 0.94/0.80 0.77/0.14 0.90/0.22 0.81/0.70 CESM2 piControl BR 0.73/0.65 0.69/1.79 0.81/0.82 0.78/0.55 0.31/2.13 0.83/0.12 0.91/0.88 0.93/0.62 0.96/0.63 0.78/0.14 0.91/0.21 0.83/0.76 CESM2 piControl BS 0.73/0.67 0.68/1.81 0.73/0.85 0.68/0.59 0.54/1.41 0.84/0.12 0.87/1.15 0.94/0.61 0.96/0.61 0.79/0.14 0.90/0.23 0.82/0.71 CESM2 piControl BT 0.66/0.79 0.68/1.81 0.68/1.19 0.69/0.61 0.49/1.22 0.86/0.11 0.89/1.02 0.92/0.69 0.97/0.51 0.81/0.14 0.90/0.22 0.82/0.72 CESM2 piControl BU 0.54/0.95 0.60/2.08 0.65/1.11 0.70/0.65 0.39/1.21 0.87/0.09 0.82/1.13 0.94/0.66 0.97/0.56 0.81/0.14 0.90/0.22 0.81/0.75 CESM2 piControl BV 0.61/0.78 0.67/2.05 0.72/1.11 0.62/0.60 0.59/0.96 0.86/0.10 0.86/1.14 0.92/0.78 0.97/0.66 0.82/0.14 0.90/0.22 0.82/0.71 CESM2 piControl BW 0.71/0.66 0.69/1.74 0.78/0.89 0.35/0.65 0.59/1.10 0.84/0.10 0.90/1.07 0.93/0.70 0.97/0.66 0.80/0.14 0.91/0.21 0.82/0.67 CESM2 piControl BX 0.74/0.69 0.61/2.05 0.72/1.02 0.51/0.64 0.48/1.63 0.79/0.13 0.89/1.29 0.93/0.67 0.94/0.75 0.78/0.13 0.91/0.22 0.80/0.79 CESM2 piControl BY 0.74/0.69 0.56/2.21 0.65/1.32 0.56/0.76 0.25/1.74 0.76/0.14 0.87/1.14 0.96/0.50 0.96/0.57 0.79/0.13 0.91/0.22 0.80/0.82 CESM2 piControl BZ 0.70/0.73 0.64/2.35 0.60/1.31 0.61/0.59 0.40/2.07 0.77/0.14 0.83/1.27 0.96/0.57 0.95/0.62 0.79/0.13 0.90/0.24 0.80/0.87 OBS A 0.43/0.88 0.69/1.21 0.79/0.70 0.40/0.67 0.38/0.89 0.82/0.11 0.88/0.71 0.90/0.63 0.95/1.05 0.69/0.16 0.77/0.24 0.76/0.63 OBS B 0.42/0.90 0.67/1.27 0.81/0.58 0.35/0.68 0.34/0.92 0.82/0.11 0.89/0.68 0.91/0.62 0.94/1.14 0.69/0.17 0.78/0.23 0.75/0.63 OBS C 0.41/0.94 0.65/1.34 0.76/0.65 0.29/0.76 0.32/0.92 0.80/0.11 0.88/0.75 0.88/0.70 0.94/1.06 0.70/0.17 0.79/0.22 0.74/0.66 OBS D 0.45/0.90 0.68/1.30 0.78/0.71 0.50/0.70 0.30/0.91 0.80/0.11 0.87/0.80 0.90/0.64 0.95/1.03 0.69/0.17 0.80/0.21 0.75/0.65 OBS E 0.48/0.88 0.69/1.24 0.78/0.75 0.51/0.67 0.24/0.98 0.80/0.11 0.86/0.81 0.89/0.68 0.94/1.03 0.69/0.17 0.80/0.21 0.75/0.66 OBS F 0.47/0.90 0.71/1.28 0.71/0.76 0.53/0.61 0.28/0.95 0.82/0.11 0.85/0.83 0.87/0.71 0.95/0.71 0.69/0.17 0.81/0.21 0.75/0.64 OBS G 0.45/0.91 0.74/1.27 0.77/0.70 0.61/0.56 0.41/0.87 0.82/0.11 0.87/0.83 0.90/0.65 0.96/0.63 0.70/0.17 0.80/0.21 0.78/0.61 OBS H 0.45/0.89 0.75/1.30 0.77/0.72 0.64/0.53 0.46/0.90 0.82/0.11 0.86/0.96 0.91/0.61 0.96/0.66 0.70/0.17 0.80/0.21 0.78/0.62 OBS I 0.49/0.84 0.76/1.30 0.75/0.83 0.63/0.54 0.48/0.91 0.81/0.11 0.86/0.93 0.90/0.63 0.96/0.68 0.71/0.16 0.80/0.21 0.78/0.63 OBS J 0.51/0.80 0.71/1.37 0.75/0.88 0.67/0.48 0.49/0.87 0.81/0.11 0.86/0.92 0.86/0.74 0.96/0.61 0.73/0.17 0.80/0.21 0.78/0.62 OBS K 0.56/0.75 0.69/1.38 0.73/0.88 0.66/0.49 0.51/0.80 0.81/0.11 0.84/0.92 0.87/0.73 0.96/0.63 0.74/0.17 0.80/0.21 0.78/0.61 OBS L 0.59/0.73 0.69/1.49 0.76/0.86 0.75/0.44 0.53/0.79 0.81/0.11 0.84/0.93 0.90/0.66 0.95/0.61 0.73/0.17 0.80/0.21 0.79/0.61 OBS M 0.60/0.73 0.67/1.60 0.77/0.88 0.75/0.44 0.52/0.82 0.80/0.11 0.86/0.90 0.90/0.64 0.95/0.60 0.73/0.17 0.80/0.21 0.79/0.62