Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Observations vs. Model(s) ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV' LP PDV' NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- OBS 2 0.95/0.25 0.99/0.32 0.90/0.07 0.95/0.11 0.80/0.40 0.96/0.05 1.00/0.13 1.00/0.10 0.99/0.93 0.86/0.10 1.00/0.00 0.98/0.22 OBS 3 0.86/0.41 0.94/1.04 0.98/0.25 0.94/0.24 0.62/0.81 0.89/0.08 0.97/0.42 0.97/0.28 0.94/1.42 0.94/0.07 0.94/0.11 0.93/0.44 OBS 4 0.86/0.41 0.94/1.04 0.68/0.18 0.93/0.13 0.60/0.67 0.92/0.07 0.97/0.42 0.97/0.29 0.94/1.43 0.87/0.10 0.94/0.11 0.91/0.40 CESM2.1 piControl 1-100 0.71/0.67 0.70/1.47 0.83/0.62 0.82/0.52 0.62/0.65 0.88/0.10 0.97/0.45 0.97/0.43 0.92/1.46 0.79/0.11 0.85/0.20 0.86/0.60 CESM2.1 piControl 101-200 0.61/0.83 0.77/1.56 0.84/0.55 0.81/0.62 0.49/0.77 0.86/0.10 0.88/0.95 0.93/0.74 0.90/1.48 0.79/0.10 0.86/0.19 0.82/0.68 CESM2.1 piControl 201-300 0.72/0.62 0.80/1.22 0.82/0.64 0.78/0.60 0.53/0.70 0.86/0.11 0.94/0.77 0.96/0.52 0.92/1.51 0.78/0.11 0.86/0.20 0.85/0.62 CESM2.1 piControl 301-400 0.66/0.70 0.83/1.24 0.81/0.59 0.76/0.57 0.37/0.89 0.87/0.10 0.92/0.80 0.93/0.65 0.91/1.41 0.76/0.11 0.86/0.19 0.83/0.65 CESM2.1 piControl 401-500 0.70/0.64 0.80/1.21 0.84/0.63 0.76/0.60 0.35/1.22 0.86/0.09 0.93/0.80 0.95/0.55 0.90/1.49 0.79/0.10 0.85/0.20 0.83/0.69 CESM2.1 piControl 501-600 0.62/0.84 0.75/1.57 0.86/0.73 0.83/0.71 0.36/1.02 0.87/0.09 0.90/1.03 0.93/0.72 0.91/1.34 0.76/0.12 0.85/0.22 0.82/0.75 CESM2.1 piControl 601-700 0.79/0.57 0.83/1.16 0.84/0.66 0.81/0.53 0.35/0.95 0.88/0.09 0.92/0.96 0.95/0.79 0.92/1.48 0.78/0.11 0.85/0.20 0.85/0.66 CESM2.1 piControl 701-800 0.71/0.63 0.72/1.40 0.81/0.56 0.78/0.55 0.30/1.45 0.84/0.09 0.93/0.78 0.88/0.90 0.91/1.41 0.77/0.10 0.86/0.19 0.81/0.73 CESM2.1 piControl 801-900 0.71/0.71 0.80/1.32 0.84/0.73 0.83/0.58 0.37/1.01 0.89/0.09 0.92/0.74 0.96/0.45 0.88/1.61 0.79/0.10 0.85/0.21 0.84/0.68 CESM2.1 piControl 901-1000 0.77/0.54 0.80/1.26 0.85/0.61 0.77/0.55 0.35/0.91 0.89/0.08 0.93/0.76 0.97/0.58 0.91/1.48 0.79/0.10 0.86/0.19 0.85/0.62 CESM2.1 piControl 1001-1100 0.71/0.63 0.78/1.31 0.84/0.69 0.79/0.57 0.20/1.22 0.88/0.08 0.92/0.77 0.93/0.67 0.90/1.61 0.77/0.11 0.85/0.21 0.82/0.70 CESM2.1 piControl 1101-1200 0.79/0.60 0.88/1.15 0.85/0.64 0.77/0.57 0.44/0.74 0.87/0.09 0.90/0.80 0.95/0.68 0.89/1.56 0.80/0.11 0.85/0.20 0.84/0.63 CESM2.1 piControl 1201-1300 0.69/0.66 0.80/1.29 0.82/0.69 0.78/0.56 0.50/0.83 0.88/0.09 0.93/0.76 0.94/0.64 0.92/1.39 0.79/0.10 0.85/0.21 0.84/0.64 CESM2.1 piControl 1301-1400 0.73/0.64 0.81/1.27 0.83/0.70 0.81/0.52 0.35/0.82 0.89/0.08 0.92/0.72 0.93/0.53 0.88/1.67 0.79/0.10 0.85/0.21 0.83/0.63 CESM2.1 piControl 1401-1500 0.71/0.70 0.77/1.58 0.85/0.63 0.83/0.48 0.17/1.32 0.90/0.09 0.92/0.72 0.96/0.46 0.92/1.37 0.76/0.11 0.85/0.20 0.84/0.70 CESM2.1 piControl 1501-1600 0.72/0.78 0.81/1.41 0.83/0.75 0.79/0.86 0.30/1.19 0.89/0.09 0.93/0.88 0.92/0.90 0.91/1.50 0.77/0.13 0.85/0.22 0.83/0.79 CESM2.1 piControl 1601-1700 0.74/0.65 0.82/1.33 0.86/0.65 0.83/0.53 0.42/0.81 0.89/0.09 0.97/0.54 0.95/0.46 0.91/1.41 0.79/0.10 0.85/0.20 0.86/0.61 CESM2.1 piControl 1701-1800 0.79/0.57 0.80/1.41 0.83/0.58 0.79/0.61 0.36/0.98 0.89/0.08 0.93/0.81 0.94/0.81 0.92/1.46 0.77/0.11 0.85/0.20 0.84/0.67 CESM2.1 piControl 1801-1900 0.78/0.61 0.82/1.48 0.83/0.61 0.79/0.64 0.52/0.90 0.90/0.08 0.93/0.73 0.96/0.64 0.91/1.47 0.78/0.10 0.86/0.19 0.85/0.65 CESM2.1 piControl 1901-2000 0.74/0.64 0.87/1.37 0.81/0.66 0.83/0.62 0.13/1.59 0.86/0.12 0.94/0.83 0.94/0.70 0.89/1.51 0.78/0.12 0.85/0.21 0.83/0.79 CESM1-LENS piControl 201-300 ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- CESM1-LENS piControl 301-400 ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- ----/---- CESM1-LENS piControl 401-500 0.59/0.78 0.77/1.43 0.81/0.75 0.77/0.44 0.25/1.00 0.81/0.11 0.93/0.69 0.88/0.66 0.91/1.43 0.72/0.11 0.79/0.19 0.79/0.69 CESM1-LENS piControl 501-600 0.58/0.82 0.78/1.56 0.86/0.71 0.73/0.59 0.10/1.47 0.83/0.10 0.91/0.72 0.93/0.60 0.90/1.40 0.72/0.11 0.78/0.20 0.79/0.77 CESM1-LENS piControl 601-700 0.60/0.70 0.79/1.26 0.87/0.62 0.83/0.40 0.29/1.03 0.85/0.09 0.89/0.81 0.93/0.59 0.92/1.51 0.73/0.10 0.79/0.20 0.81/0.65 CESM1-LENS piControl 701-800 0.62/0.77 0.75/1.54 0.85/0.67 0.81/0.53 0.08/1.57 0.83/0.10 0.89/0.81 0.95/0.45 0.92/1.46 0.72/0.11 0.78/0.20 0.80/0.76 CESM1-LENS piControl 801-900 0.60/0.82 0.77/1.46 0.85/0.46 0.81/0.32 0.44/1.01 0.86/0.08 0.87/0.88 0.94/0.63 0.92/1.38 0.70/0.11 0.79/0.20 0.81/0.64 CESM1-LENS piControl 901-1000 0.69/0.62 0.83/1.12 0.83/0.52 0.80/0.40 0.41/0.94 0.84/0.10 0.89/0.83 0.92/0.63 0.90/1.59 0.74/0.10 0.78/0.20 0.81/0.62 CESM1-LENS piControl 1001-1100 0.61/0.79 0.72/1.46 0.83/0.71 0.77/0.38 0.49/0.73 0.87/0.08 0.93/0.63 0.93/0.60 0.92/1.37 0.72/0.11 0.79/0.20 0.81/0.62 CESM1-LENS piControl 1101-1200 0.56/0.77 0.75/1.36 0.85/0.57 0.81/0.47 0.47/0.79 0.87/0.09 0.89/0.79 0.89/0.74 0.88/1.63 0.74/0.10 0.79/0.20 0.80/0.65 CESM1-LENS piControl 1201-1300 0.48/0.96 0.66/1.86 0.84/0.56 0.75/0.44 0.16/0.99 0.85/0.09 0.91/0.77 0.93/0.58 0.92/1.51 0.72/0.11 0.79/0.19 0.79/0.70 CESM1-LENS piControl 1301-1500 0.45/0.90 0.70/1.52 0.84/0.59 0.78/0.31 0.11/1.42 0.88/0.08 0.83/1.18 0.88/0.87 0.90/1.55 0.74/0.10 0.78/0.20 0.77/0.76 CESM1-LENS piControl 1401-1500 0.38/1.16 0.59/2.18 0.83/0.74 0.78/0.69 0.15/1.28 0.87/0.08 0.93/0.64 0.93/0.52 0.92/1.49 0.72/0.11 0.78/0.21 0.79/0.81 CESM1-LENS piControl 1501-1600 0.57/0.82 0.73/1.65 0.83/0.52 0.57/0.51 0.28/1.12 0.86/0.08 0.87/0.83 0.92/0.56 0.90/1.61 0.71/0.11 0.78/0.20 0.78/0.70 CESM1-LENS piControl 1601-1700 0.46/0.84 0.67/1.54 0.85/0.55 0.72/0.43 0.14/1.11 0.86/0.08 0.92/0.67 0.92/0.69 0.90/1.66 0.72/0.11 0.78/0.20 0.78/0.69 CESM1-LENS piControl 1701-1800 0.54/0.79 0.70/1.37 0.84/0.51 0.77/0.43 0.41/0.72 0.83/0.09 0.89/0.77 0.93/0.51 0.92/1.43 0.72/0.11 0.79/0.19 0.80/0.61 CESM1-LENS piControl 1801-1900 0.53/0.86 0.72/1.53 0.85/0.59 0.79/0.51 0.50/0.78 0.84/0.10 0.89/0.80 0.85/0.81 0.90/1.65 0.73/0.11 0.78/0.20 0.79/0.68 CESM1-LENS piControl 1901-2000 0.40/1.01 0.66/1.76 0.81/0.71 0.77/0.58 0.25/1.43 0.84/0.10 0.87/0.89 0.92/0.77 0.92/1.43 0.73/0.11 0.79/0.20 0.77/0.82 CESM1-LENS piControl 2001-2100 0.48/0.81 0.68/1.53 0.82/0.58 0.76/0.48 0.45/0.85 0.86/0.09 0.93/0.67 0.93/0.59 0.89/1.61 0.73/0.11 0.79/0.20 0.80/0.65 CESM1-LENS piControl 2101-2200 0.53/0.82 0.68/1.55 0.83/0.65 0.78/0.46 0.20/1.01 0.83/0.09 0.86/0.95 0.91/0.73 0.90/1.59 0.72/0.11 0.78/0.20 0.77/0.71