Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Observations vs. Ensemble Means ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV' LP PDV' NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ACCESS-ESM1-5 (10%) 0.48/0.55 0.54/1.05 0.74/0.29 0.76/0.29 0.17/0.68 0.66/0.09 0.85/0.66 0.92/0.40 0.92/1.05 0.54/0.17 0.81/0.20 0.76/0.56 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (Avg) 0.62/0.62 0.72/1.22 0.85/0.35 0.80/0.37 0.38/0.98 0.76/0.11 0.90/0.77 0.94/0.47 0.93/1.19 0.58/0.19 0.82/0.20 0.80/0.61 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (90%) 0.70/0.67 0.80/1.32 0.89/0.46 0.84/0.43 0.47/1.22 0.81/0.12 0.92/0.82 0.95/0.54 0.94/1.28 0.60/0.19 0.82/0.21 0.82/0.65 CanESM5 (10%) 0.55/0.61 0.64/1.02 0.86/0.31 0.82/0.26 0.30/0.71 0.81/0.08 0.91/0.61 0.86/0.61 0.92/1.23 0.64/0.12 0.76/0.22 0.80/0.58 CanESM5 (Avg) 0.62/0.70 0.75/1.22 0.90/0.37 0.87/0.30 0.40/0.92 0.83/0.09 0.93/0.69 0.90/0.78 0.93/1.31 0.66/0.13 0.76/0.23 0.82/0.61 CanESM5 (90%) 0.69/0.81 0.82/1.44 0.93/0.43 0.91/0.35 0.52/1.15 0.86/0.10 0.95/0.78 0.93/0.93 0.94/1.37 0.69/0.14 0.77/0.23 0.84/0.65 CESM2 (10%) 0.66/0.56 0.76/1.09 0.85/0.47 0.78/0.40 0.04/0.71 0.86/0.07 0.87/0.61 0.92/0.59 0.87/1.33 0.78/0.10 0.85/0.18 0.83/0.60 CESM2 (Avg) 0.74/0.64 0.83/1.33 0.87/0.61 0.83/0.58 0.34/1.00 0.89/0.08 0.92/0.86 0.95/0.69 0.89/1.50 0.79/0.12 0.85/0.20 0.84/0.68 CESM2 (90%) 0.77/0.70 0.88/1.65 0.89/0.70 0.84/0.70 0.48/1.20 0.91/0.09 0.93/1.01 0.95/0.79 0.90/1.56 0.79/0.13 0.86/0.21 0.85/0.75 CNRM-CM6-1 (10%) 0.64/0.52 0.58/1.09 0.87/0.28 0.83/0.27 0.49/0.62 0.11/0.10 0.93/0.44 0.45/0.72 0.96/0.78 0.63/0.11 0.74/0.21 0.79/0.54 CNRM-CM6-1 (Avg) 0.70/0.58 0.71/1.25 0.89/0.35 0.85/0.34 0.57/0.70 0.68/0.12 0.95/0.56 0.70/1.17 0.97/0.91 0.67/0.13 0.75/0.21 0.81/0.59 CNRM-CM6-1 (90%) 0.76/0.62 0.78/1.39 0.90/0.45 0.87/0.41 0.64/0.81 0.79/0.14 0.97/0.65 0.86/1.48 0.97/1.00 0.70/0.14 0.76/0.21 0.83/0.63 CNRM-ESM2-1 (10%) 0.63/0.49 0.57/1.06 0.86/0.33 0.83/0.35 0.35/0.53 -0.19/0.10 0.91/0.46 0.44/0.54 0.96/0.76 0.56/0.12 0.75/0.21 0.78/0.55 CNRM-ESM2-1 (Avg) 0.73/0.57 0.75/1.22 0.89/0.45 0.87/0.39 0.60/0.70 0.60/0.14 0.95/0.55 0.70/1.17 0.97/0.87 0.63/0.13 0.75/0.21 0.82/0.62 CNRM-ESM2-1 (90%) 0.78/0.63 0.81/1.33 0.91/0.52 0.89/0.42 0.65/0.70 0.79/0.18 0.96/0.59 0.88/1.53 0.98/0.98 0.65/0.15 0.75/0.21 0.83/0.65 EC-Earth3 (10%) 0.49/0.58 0.69/0.85 0.18/0.18 0.46/0.23 0.52/0.58 0.62/0.09 0.91/0.49 0.92/0.39 0.93/1.26 0.45/0.14 0.82/0.17 0.75/0.50 EC-Earth3 (Avg) 0.59/0.66 0.81/1.07 0.29/0.22 0.57/0.30 0.60/0.71 0.77/0.11 0.94/0.61 0.95/0.59 0.95/1.40 0.51/0.18 0.83/0.17 0.78/0.55 EC-Earth3 (90%) 0.67/0.73 0.87/1.30 0.38/0.25 0.62/0.37 0.67/0.82 0.82/0.14 0.96/0.69 0.97/0.72 0.96/1.48 0.56/0.22 0.83/0.17 0.80/0.59 GISS-E2-1-G (10%) 0.65/0.80 0.67/1.42 0.75/0.74 0.68/0.65 0.24/0.74 0.77/0.10 0.86/0.68 0.78/0.78 0.88/1.22 0.68/0.16 0.72/0.25 0.76/0.79 GISS-E2-1-G (Avg) 0.68/0.88 0.74/1.61 0.77/0.82 0.73/0.76 0.44/0.97 0.81/0.12 0.91/0.78 0.85/1.10 0.91/1.38 0.69/0.18 0.74/0.26 0.78/0.83 GISS-E2-1-G (90%) 0.71/0.96 0.79/1.78 0.80/0.89 0.77/0.84 0.57/1.16 0.84/0.15 0.93/0.89 0.91/1.28 0.93/1.50 0.70/0.19 0.75/0.28 0.79/0.87 GISS-E2-1-H (10%) 0.67/0.55 0.76/1.00 0.75/0.44 0.81/0.26 0.25/0.80 0.77/0.09 0.90/0.46 0.86/0.60 0.90/1.17 0.53/0.14 0.61/0.28 0.80/0.60 GISS-E2-1-H (Avg) 0.73/0.62 0.82/1.17 0.83/0.62 0.86/0.36 0.40/1.14 0.81/0.10 0.94/0.58 0.91/0.87 0.93/1.28 0.58/0.15 0.64/0.30 0.81/0.69 GISS-E2-1-H (90%) 0.77/0.71 0.87/1.40 0.88/0.78 0.89/0.47 0.54/1.33 0.84/0.11 0.96/0.69 0.94/1.03 0.94/1.37 0.61/0.17 0.66/0.32 0.83/0.74 INM-CM5-0 (10%) 0.05/0.62 0.06/1.31 0.83/0.42 0.73/0.43 0.28/0.65 0.47/0.13 0.86/0.52 0.65/0.83 0.90/1.42 0.50/0.16 0.76/0.19 0.65/0.67 INM-CM5-0 (Avg) 0.30/0.75 0.33/1.66 0.88/0.45 0.83/0.48 0.43/0.85 0.52/0.14 0.91/0.72 0.77/1.02 0.92/1.48 0.51/0.17 0.77/0.20 0.72/0.72 INM-CM5-0 (90%) 0.45/0.85 0.57/1.86 0.90/0.46 0.88/0.53 0.54/0.98 0.56/0.15 0.94/0.85 0.82/1.21 0.93/1.52 0.52/0.17 0.77/0.20 0.75/0.77 IPSL-CM6A-LR (10%) 0.57/0.52 0.57/1.14 0.90/0.30 0.88/0.29 0.42/0.61 0.78/0.08 0.91/0.59 0.77/0.82 0.97/0.81 0.69/0.13 0.67/0.27 0.81/0.56 IPSL-CM6A-LR (Avg) 0.70/0.61 0.68/1.41 0.94/0.37 0.92/0.37 0.56/0.71 0.82/0.10 0.93/0.68 0.83/1.06 0.97/0.88 0.71/0.14 0.68/0.28 0.84/0.61 IPSL-CM6A-LR (90%) 0.77/0.69 0.76/1.68 0.96/0.44 0.94/0.46 0.64/0.80 0.85/0.10 0.95/0.80 0.87/1.22 0.97/0.99 0.73/0.15 0.68/0.29 0.85/0.66 MIROC6 (10%) 0.64/0.73 0.81/1.30 0.87/0.61 0.78/0.58 0.24/0.73 0.85/0.11 0.90/0.51 0.87/0.54 0.96/1.03 0.68/0.13 0.81/0.19 0.84/0.68 MIROC6 (Avg) 0.71/0.82 0.85/1.49 0.89/0.69 0.83/0.76 0.37/0.99 0.87/0.13 0.94/0.66 0.91/0.62 0.97/1.15 0.70/0.15 0.81/0.20 0.85/0.75 MIROC6 (90%) 0.75/0.90 0.88/1.69 0.90/0.76 0.86/0.90 0.49/1.26 0.88/0.15 0.96/0.79 0.94/0.69 0.97/1.25 0.71/0.17 0.82/0.20 0.86/0.80 MIROC-ES2L (10%) 0.67/0.65 0.71/1.29 0.85/0.77 0.67/0.71 0.32/0.68 0.78/0.11 0.78/0.80 0.68/0.61 0.93/1.07 0.65/0.14 0.75/0.19 0.78/0.72 MIROC-ES2L (Avg) 0.71/0.76 0.77/1.47 0.88/1.01 0.75/0.87 0.42/0.88 0.81/0.14 0.85/0.91 0.80/0.81 0.96/1.17 0.67/0.17 0.76/0.19 0.80/0.81 MIROC-ES2L (90%) 0.73/0.86 0.80/1.58 0.89/1.15 0.79/0.97 0.53/1.01 0.82/0.15 0.88/1.01 0.87/0.97 0.96/1.26 0.68/0.19 0.77/0.19 0.81/0.89 MPI-ESM1-2-HR (10%) 0.66/0.45 0.74/0.76 0.39/0.25 0.63/0.24 0.36/0.59 0.79/0.08 0.94/0.48 0.92/0.45 0.95/0.94 0.63/0.12 0.80/0.18 0.80/0.46 MPI-ESM1-2-HR (Avg) 0.74/0.52 0.85/0.95 0.48/0.28 0.70/0.28 0.53/0.71 0.83/0.09 0.96/0.55 0.94/0.58 0.96/1.08 0.67/0.14 0.81/0.18 0.83/0.50 MPI-ESM1-2-HR (90%) 0.79/0.56 0.89/1.18 0.54/0.31 0.75/0.30 0.63/0.83 0.87/0.10 0.97/0.64 0.96/0.71 0.96/1.19 0.69/0.14 0.81/0.18 0.85/0.52 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (10%) 0.61/0.42 0.82/0.79 0.83/0.34 0.86/0.24 0.22/0.78 0.79/0.09 0.91/0.51 0.84/0.51 0.95/0.96 0.65/0.14 0.80/0.18 0.84/0.53 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (Avg) 0.75/0.57 0.86/0.95 0.89/0.54 0.90/0.38 0.40/0.88 0.83/0.10 0.94/0.67 0.92/0.72 0.96/1.05 0.67/0.15 0.80/0.19 0.85/0.59 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (90%) 0.84/0.64 0.89/1.02 0.91/0.64 0.93/0.51 0.48/1.00 0.86/0.10 0.95/0.80 0.94/0.87 0.96/1.08 0.68/0.16 0.80/0.19 0.87/0.63 NorCPM1 (10%) 0.59/0.61 0.57/1.20 0.92/0.47 0.88/0.36 0.13/0.75 0.73/0.09 0.88/0.83 0.44/0.63 0.86/1.49 0.71/0.11 0.77/0.21 0.77/0.64 NorCPM1 (Avg) 0.67/0.76 0.69/1.67 0.93/0.56 0.90/0.51 0.36/1.06 0.79/0.10 0.90/1.02 0.85/1.06 0.88/1.60 0.73/0.12 0.78/0.21 0.81/0.76 NorCPM1 (90%) 0.74/0.91 0.77/2.10 0.94/0.63 0.91/0.63 0.52/1.42 0.81/0.11 0.92/1.22 0.95/1.67 0.89/1.67 0.74/0.12 0.78/0.21 0.83/0.84 UKESM1-0-LL (10%) 0.64/0.55 0.75/0.90 0.96/0.22 0.93/0.18 0.32/0.64 0.84/0.08 0.90/0.60 0.88/0.49 0.94/1.03 0.69/0.12 0.80/0.18 0.86/0.51 UKESM1-0-LL (Avg) 0.73/0.63 0.83/1.05 0.97/0.29 0.95/0.26 0.49/0.79 0.86/0.08 0.92/0.73 0.92/0.64 0.95/1.11 0.73/0.14 0.80/0.19 0.87/0.54 UKESM1-0-LL (90%) 0.78/0.69 0.88/1.27 0.97/0.35 0.96/0.31 0.63/0.99 0.89/0.09 0.94/0.83 0.94/0.75 0.95/1.18 0.75/0.15 0.81/0.19 0.88/0.56