Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Observations vs. Ensemble Means ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV' LP PDV' NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- CCCma (10%) 0.50/0.85 0.67/1.42 0.90/0.33 0.74/0.54 0.06/0.86 0.78/0.10 0.80/0.84 0.75/0.89 0.94/0.45 0.68/0.11 0.64/0.24 0.77/0.67 CCCma (Avg) 0.54/0.97 0.74/1.70 0.93/0.44 0.80/0.71 0.29/1.26 0.82/0.10 0.85/1.06 0.80/1.07 0.96/0.54 0.71/0.12 0.66/0.24 0.79/0.74 CCCma (90%) 0.57/1.06 0.78/2.10 0.95/0.54 0.85/0.85 0.48/1.76 0.83/0.11 0.89/1.26 0.84/1.26 0.96/0.62 0.73/0.13 0.67/0.25 0.80/0.80 CSIRO (10%) 0.39/0.74 0.53/1.44 0.55/0.46 0.67/0.35 0.24/0.76 0.63/0.12 0.69/1.01 0.67/0.69 0.94/0.42 0.56/0.15 0.75/0.25 0.69/0.65 CSIRO (Avg) 0.48/0.84 0.64/1.65 0.70/0.63 0.76/0.42 0.41/1.11 0.70/0.13 0.80/1.17 0.77/0.86 0.95/0.49 0.58/0.17 0.76/0.26 0.73/0.71 CSIRO (90%) 0.56/0.92 0.72/1.84 0.76/0.79 0.82/0.50 0.54/1.44 0.75/0.14 0.86/1.37 0.84/1.04 0.97/0.54 0.61/0.18 0.77/0.27 0.75/0.79 GFDL-CM3 (10%) 0.53/0.72 0.74/1.10 0.88/0.61 0.82/0.68 0.37/0.78 0.71/0.10 0.86/0.65 0.80/0.54 0.97/0.52 0.47/0.14 0.75/0.21 0.81/0.67 GFDL-CM3 (Avg) 0.59/0.85 0.81/1.44 0.92/0.87 0.86/0.87 0.53/0.97 0.77/0.11 0.91/0.77 0.89/0.74 0.97/0.78 0.56/0.16 0.76/0.21 0.83/0.73 GFDL-CM3 (90%) 0.64/0.93 0.86/1.72 0.93/1.23 0.89/0.99 0.60/1.12 0.80/0.12 0.93/0.88 0.92/0.93 0.98/0.94 0.64/0.17 0.77/0.21 0.84/0.78 GFDL-ESM2M (10%) 0.57/0.86 0.67/1.63 0.84/0.76 0.79/0.50 0.14/0.98 0.76/0.11 0.85/0.66 0.60/0.63 0.96/0.54 0.64/0.15 0.75/0.27 0.78/0.72 GFDL-ESM2M (Avg) 0.64/0.99 0.75/1.92 0.88/1.17 0.85/0.86 0.34/1.22 0.78/0.12 0.90/0.82 0.81/0.97 0.96/0.72 0.67/0.18 0.75/0.29 0.80/0.86 GFDL-ESM2M (90%) 0.69/1.09 0.81/2.19 0.90/1.53 0.90/1.06 0.52/1.47 0.82/0.13 0.93/0.99 0.89/1.36 0.97/0.90 0.69/0.19 0.76/0.30 0.82/0.96 MPI (10%) 0.59/0.60 0.63/1.17 0.67/0.56 0.69/0.28 0.17/0.87 0.68/0.11 0.87/0.59 0.72/0.69 0.95/0.46 0.61/0.15 0.76/0.21 0.76/0.63 MPI (Avg) 0.67/0.70 0.76/1.43 0.78/0.79 0.82/0.36 0.33/1.18 0.75/0.12 0.92/0.77 0.82/0.92 0.96/0.58 0.65/0.16 0.77/0.21 0.79/0.68 MPI (90%) 0.73/0.80 0.83/1.72 0.83/1.02 0.88/0.44 0.47/1.44 0.81/0.13 0.95/0.93 0.88/1.19 0.97/0.70 0.69/0.18 0.78/0.22 0.82/0.73 NCAR (10%) 0.52/0.75 0.69/1.38 0.81/0.58 0.72/0.41 0.11/0.93 0.81/0.09 0.83/0.73 0.82/0.64 0.89/0.54 0.71/0.11 0.75/0.21 0.77/0.64 NCAR (Avg) 0.58/0.86 0.77/1.59 0.84/0.68 0.77/0.54 0.31/1.23 0.85/0.10 0.86/0.94 0.87/0.79 0.92/0.62 0.73/0.12 0.76/0.22 0.79/0.70 NCAR (90%) 0.64/0.95 0.82/1.87 0.87/0.78 0.81/0.66 0.45/1.49 0.87/0.11 0.91/1.12 0.91/1.01 0.94/0.69 0.74/0.13 0.77/0.22 0.80/0.76 SMHI_KNMI (10%) 0.18/0.70 0.15/1.74 0.01/0.24 0.31/0.39 0.15/0.80 0.46/0.14 0.90/0.57 0.55/0.56 0.96/0.37 0.51/0.12 0.70/0.24 0.63/0.60 SMHI_KNMI (Avg) 0.36/0.81 0.39/1.98 0.12/0.25 0.47/0.43 0.35/1.13 0.55/0.14 0.93/0.68 0.79/0.86 0.97/0.46 0.55/0.13 0.71/0.24 0.66/0.65 SMHI_KNMI (90%) 0.48/0.88 0.55/2.14 0.23/0.27 0.55/0.46 0.48/1.52 0.60/0.15 0.95/0.78 0.88/0.98 0.97/0.56 0.58/0.14 0.72/0.25 0.69/0.69