Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Observations vs. Ensemble Means ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV' LP PDV' NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- CCCma (10%) 0.41/0.92 0.68/1.45 0.92/0.26 0.74/0.49 0.35/0.73 0.82/0.09 0.81/0.89 0.83/0.83 0.91/0.70 0.65/0.15 0.62/0.25 0.77/0.64 CCCma (Avg) 0.48/1.04 0.72/1.63 0.94/0.32 0.79/0.59 0.47/0.85 0.84/0.10 0.85/1.07 0.85/0.99 0.92/0.76 0.67/0.16 0.63/0.25 0.79/0.68 CCCma (90%) 0.54/1.14 0.77/1.76 0.96/0.39 0.83/0.68 0.57/1.00 0.85/0.10 0.89/1.22 0.88/1.10 0.93/0.81 0.69/0.16 0.64/0.26 0.80/0.71 CSIRO (10%) 0.37/0.99 0.54/1.47 0.54/0.70 0.68/0.40 0.42/0.71 0.69/0.10 0.79/0.94 0.63/0.52 0.89/0.51 0.54/0.24 0.76/0.25 0.69/0.69 CSIRO (Avg) 0.48/1.15 0.66/1.59 0.66/0.95 0.74/0.47 0.51/0.82 0.75/0.11 0.84/1.07 0.81/0.78 0.92/0.63 0.55/0.26 0.77/0.26 0.73/0.76 CSIRO (90%) 0.56/1.26 0.70/1.67 0.72/1.15 0.78/0.54 0.59/0.96 0.79/0.12 0.89/1.17 0.89/1.05 0.95/0.71 0.57/0.28 0.77/0.26 0.75/0.83 GFDL-CM3 (10%) 0.42/0.89 0.80/1.09 0.90/0.54 0.84/0.75 0.42/0.63 0.79/0.09 0.87/0.71 0.82/0.65 0.95/0.84 0.38/0.23 0.76/0.20 0.81/0.68 GFDL-CM3 (Avg) 0.55/1.00 0.83/1.29 0.92/0.82 0.87/0.89 0.59/0.75 0.82/0.10 0.90/0.84 0.88/0.89 0.95/0.94 0.42/0.24 0.76/0.20 0.82/0.74 GFDL-CM3 (90%) 0.64/1.12 0.86/1.40 0.94/1.02 0.89/1.01 0.67/0.84 0.83/0.10 0.92/0.96 0.92/1.08 0.96/1.04 0.48/0.25 0.77/0.20 0.83/0.80 GFDL-ESM2M (10%) 0.62/0.82 0.74/1.39 0.87/0.63 0.84/0.46 0.30/0.73 0.77/0.10 0.87/0.65 0.80/0.55 0.95/0.56 0.64/0.16 0.75/0.28 0.82/0.65 GFDL-ESM2M (Avg) 0.65/0.90 0.79/1.60 0.90/0.93 0.87/0.70 0.47/0.88 0.80/0.11 0.91/0.81 0.88/0.78 0.96/0.67 0.67/0.17 0.75/0.30 0.82/0.73 GFDL-ESM2M (90%) 0.68/0.95 0.82/1.78 0.92/1.12 0.89/0.96 0.61/0.98 0.82/0.11 0.93/0.95 0.93/0.94 0.96/0.78 0.69/0.18 0.76/0.31 0.83/0.79 MPI (10%) 0.60/0.64 0.75/1.11 0.73/0.63 0.72/0.29 0.33/0.74 0.74/0.10 0.88/0.70 0.74/0.76 0.95/0.49 0.61/0.17 0.77/0.20 0.78/0.61 MPI (Avg) 0.67/0.71 0.81/1.25 0.79/0.77 0.82/0.35 0.45/0.88 0.78/0.11 0.91/0.80 0.81/1.01 0.96/0.58 0.63/0.18 0.78/0.20 0.80/0.65 MPI (90%) 0.73/0.78 0.85/1.39 0.84/0.91 0.87/0.42 0.54/1.02 0.82/0.12 0.93/0.92 0.87/1.24 0.97/0.67 0.66/0.19 0.78/0.21 0.82/0.68 NCAR (10%) 0.45/0.90 0.74/1.36 0.83/0.57 0.75/0.50 0.19/0.73 0.83/0.09 0.81/0.90 0.84/0.75 0.88/0.62 0.68/0.18 0.74/0.22 0.76/0.66 NCAR (Avg) 0.52/1.01 0.78/1.58 0.84/0.63 0.78/0.59 0.39/0.88 0.86/0.10 0.85/1.03 0.87/0.89 0.90/0.69 0.70/0.19 0.75/0.23 0.78/0.71 NCAR (90%) 0.59/1.13 0.80/1.75 0.86/0.69 0.82/0.69 0.52/1.04 0.88/0.11 0.87/1.17 0.90/1.03 0.92/0.76 0.72/0.20 0.75/0.24 0.80/0.75 SMHI_KNMI (10%) 0.17/0.88 0.41/1.40 0.07/0.29 0.50/0.35 0.39/0.64 0.60/0.12 0.92/0.55 0.81/0.52 0.96/0.39 0.60/0.12 0.73/0.22 0.69/0.55 SMHI_KNMI (Avg) 0.28/1.01 0.61/1.67 0.16/0.31 0.59/0.37 0.49/0.81 0.65/0.13 0.94/0.63 0.88/0.66 0.97/0.46 0.62/0.12 0.74/0.22 0.72/0.59 SMHI_KNMI (90%) 0.38/1.12 0.72/1.90 0.21/0.33 0.64/0.38 0.62/0.93 0.69/0.13 0.96/0.72 0.91/0.80 0.97/0.50 0.65/0.13 0.75/0.23 0.75/0.63