Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Observations vs. Ensemble Means ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV' LP PDV' NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- CCCma (10%) 0.43/0.82 0.58/1.61 0.89/0.28 0.71/0.45 0.13/0.81 0.80/0.10 0.79/0.94 0.81/0.84 0.86/0.66 0.62/0.12 0.58/0.26 0.74/0.65 CCCma (Avg) 0.50/0.90 0.66/1.84 0.93/0.34 0.78/0.56 0.38/1.02 0.82/0.10 0.84/1.10 0.85/1.02 0.89/0.74 0.65/0.12 0.59/0.27 0.76/0.69 CCCma (90%) 0.56/1.01 0.71/2.03 0.95/0.42 0.83/0.70 0.49/1.22 0.84/0.11 0.88/1.23 0.88/1.17 0.91/0.82 0.67/0.13 0.60/0.27 0.78/0.73 CSIRO (10%) 0.43/0.69 0.44/1.41 0.53/0.58 0.70/0.45 0.29/0.82 0.67/0.11 0.77/0.90 0.68/0.52 0.85/0.59 0.53/0.17 0.75/0.25 0.68/0.66 CSIRO (Avg) 0.54/0.79 0.57/1.75 0.70/0.77 0.77/0.54 0.42/1.00 0.72/0.12 0.85/1.05 0.81/0.77 0.90/0.72 0.56/0.18 0.77/0.26 0.72/0.73 CSIRO (90%) 0.60/0.91 0.68/1.98 0.76/0.92 0.83/0.66 0.52/1.29 0.78/0.13 0.90/1.20 0.91/0.94 0.92/0.82 0.57/0.19 0.77/0.27 0.75/0.79 GFDL-CM3 (10%) 0.51/0.74 0.77/1.30 0.89/0.59 0.83/0.67 0.11/0.81 0.77/0.10 0.82/0.82 0.84/0.73 0.92/0.62 0.45/0.13 0.74/0.20 0.79/0.68 GFDL-CM3 (Avg) 0.61/0.82 0.81/1.52 0.92/0.96 0.87/0.99 0.39/1.02 0.80/0.10 0.86/1.02 0.88/0.96 0.94/0.74 0.50/0.14 0.75/0.21 0.80/0.77 GFDL-CM3 (90%) 0.64/0.89 0.85/1.73 0.93/1.30 0.89/1.21 0.56/1.17 0.82/0.11 0.90/1.13 0.91/1.16 0.95/0.84 0.55/0.15 0.76/0.21 0.81/0.85 GFDL-ESM2M (10%) 0.58/0.79 0.72/1.41 0.88/0.51 0.81/0.42 0.12/0.85 0.71/0.10 0.85/0.70 0.74/0.66 0.93/0.46 0.64/0.12 0.73/0.28 0.79/0.65 GFDL-ESM2M (Avg) 0.64/0.87 0.77/1.66 0.91/0.78 0.87/0.69 0.35/1.12 0.78/0.11 0.89/0.90 0.86/0.93 0.95/0.54 0.67/0.13 0.74/0.31 0.81/0.74 GFDL-ESM2M (90%) 0.69/0.95 0.82/1.87 0.93/1.03 0.90/0.94 0.49/1.38 0.82/0.12 0.92/1.11 0.91/1.26 0.96/0.62 0.70/0.14 0.75/0.33 0.82/0.84 MPI (10%) 0.59/0.62 0.62/1.20 0.67/0.58 0.66/0.29 0.19/0.87 0.72/0.10 0.85/0.73 0.72/0.74 0.93/0.51 0.59/0.14 0.76/0.20 0.75/0.61 MPI (Avg) 0.66/0.69 0.75/1.43 0.77/0.76 0.79/0.38 0.36/1.10 0.77/0.12 0.89/0.91 0.82/1.05 0.94/0.56 0.62/0.15 0.77/0.21 0.77/0.68 MPI (90%) 0.71/0.77 0.83/1.69 0.82/0.96 0.87/0.46 0.49/1.37 0.82/0.13 0.93/1.08 0.88/1.35 0.95/0.62 0.65/0.17 0.78/0.21 0.80/0.75 NCAR (10%) 0.51/0.81 0.66/1.59 0.80/0.51 0.64/0.42 0.05/0.84 0.80/0.10 0.77/0.99 0.82/0.82 0.84/0.72 0.68/0.11 0.72/0.23 0.74/0.68 NCAR (Avg) 0.56/0.92 0.73/1.88 0.82/0.61 0.73/0.54 0.28/1.07 0.83/0.11 0.82/1.17 0.86/1.03 0.88/0.81 0.70/0.13 0.73/0.24 0.75/0.75 NCAR (90%) 0.60/1.03 0.77/2.15 0.84/0.74 0.79/0.67 0.49/1.42 0.86/0.13 0.87/1.36 0.89/1.20 0.90/0.88 0.71/0.15 0.74/0.26 0.77/0.81 SMHI_KNMI (10%) 0.39/0.69 0.46/1.42 0.04/0.22 0.53/0.38 0.24/0.79 0.60/0.11 0.92/0.57 0.77/0.58 0.95/0.44 0.61/0.11 0.73/0.21 0.69/0.55 SMHI_KNMI (Avg) 0.48/0.77 0.62/1.67 0.22/0.25 0.58/0.41 0.40/0.99 0.70/0.12 0.93/0.69 0.87/0.74 0.96/0.48 0.64/0.11 0.74/0.22 0.72/0.59 SMHI_KNMI (90%) 0.56/0.83 0.69/1.88 0.35/0.27 0.63/0.42 0.50/1.16 0.74/0.13 0.95/0.75 0.90/0.87 0.97/0.53 0.67/0.11 0.75/0.22 0.74/0.61