Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Observations vs. Ensemble Means ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV' LP PDV' NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ACCESS-ESM1-5 (10%) 0.51/0.68 0.70/1.06 0.82/0.35 0.78/0.29 0.30/0.70 0.81/0.08 0.89/0.64 0.94/0.34 0.92/1.07 0.61/0.19 0.82/0.21 0.81/0.56 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (Avg) 0.58/0.75 0.78/1.23 0.87/0.40 0.83/0.34 0.46/0.84 0.84/0.09 0.92/0.74 0.95/0.42 0.93/1.14 0.63/0.21 0.82/0.21 0.83/0.58 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (90%) 0.63/0.82 0.83/1.36 0.89/0.45 0.86/0.41 0.57/1.00 0.86/0.09 0.94/0.83 0.97/0.49 0.94/1.25 0.65/0.22 0.82/0.21 0.84/0.61 CanESM5 (10%) 0.42/0.74 0.74/1.08 0.88/0.35 0.85/0.24 0.36/0.60 0.84/0.08 0.92/0.60 0.89/0.64 0.91/1.20 0.65/0.15 0.76/0.23 0.82/0.56 CanESM5 (Avg) 0.52/0.87 0.79/1.20 0.91/0.40 0.88/0.28 0.49/0.73 0.86/0.08 0.94/0.70 0.91/0.74 0.92/1.25 0.67/0.16 0.77/0.24 0.83/0.58 CanESM5 (90%) 0.61/0.99 0.83/1.31 0.93/0.45 0.91/0.31 0.60/0.88 0.88/0.08 0.95/0.79 0.93/0.84 0.93/1.30 0.69/0.17 0.77/0.24 0.84/0.61 EC-Earth3 (10%) 0.51/0.63 0.83/0.92 0.14/0.19 0.67/0.25 0.57/0.61 0.76/0.08 0.91/0.52 0.93/0.49 0.94/1.20 0.48/0.16 0.84/0.16 0.80/0.50 EC-Earth3 (Avg) 0.58/0.70 0.87/0.99 0.21/0.24 0.70/0.35 0.62/0.68 0.83/0.09 0.94/0.66 0.95/0.57 0.95/1.27 0.55/0.20 0.84/0.17 0.81/0.53 EC-Earth3 (90%) 0.63/0.74 0.88/1.09 0.29/0.26 0.73/0.41 0.66/0.73 0.85/0.10 0.95/0.73 0.96/0.66 0.96/1.32 0.58/0.23 0.85/0.17 0.81/0.54 GISS-E2-1-G (10%) 0.61/0.86 0.62/1.39 0.75/0.68 0.62/0.68 0.22/0.56 0.76/0.09 0.85/0.68 0.76/0.90 0.86/1.14 0.70/0.19 0.71/0.26 0.76/0.74 GISS-E2-1-G (Avg) 0.65/0.93 0.76/1.58 0.79/0.78 0.71/0.82 0.51/0.81 0.81/0.12 0.90/0.84 0.85/1.12 0.90/1.28 0.71/0.20 0.72/0.28 0.78/0.80 GISS-E2-1-G (90%) 0.69/0.97 0.80/1.68 0.81/0.84 0.75/0.91 0.65/0.99 0.84/0.13 0.93/0.96 0.89/1.30 0.92/1.41 0.72/0.21 0.74/0.29 0.79/0.86 MIROC6 (10%) 0.64/0.81 0.85/1.21 0.88/0.62 0.83/0.69 0.37/0.63 0.85/0.13 0.91/0.57 0.88/0.57 0.96/0.94 0.70/0.16 0.82/0.20 0.85/0.68 MIROC6 (Avg) 0.68/0.88 0.87/1.32 0.88/0.71 0.86/0.79 0.49/0.76 0.86/0.14 0.94/0.72 0.91/0.62 0.97/1.02 0.71/0.17 0.82/0.20 0.86/0.71 MIROC6 (90%) 0.71/0.94 0.89/1.42 0.89/0.77 0.88/0.87 0.58/0.91 0.87/0.16 0.96/0.80 0.93/0.67 0.97/1.08 0.72/0.19 0.82/0.21 0.87/0.75 MIROC-ES2L (10%) 0.65/0.70 0.73/1.27 0.82/0.97 0.74/0.88 0.37/0.68 0.75/0.14 0.81/0.95 0.70/0.77 0.95/0.94 0.68/0.19 0.76/0.19 0.78/0.77 MIROC-ES2L (Avg) 0.68/0.82 0.77/1.44 0.86/1.08 0.76/0.99 0.47/0.81 0.78/0.16 0.84/1.02 0.77/0.88 0.96/0.99 0.68/0.20 0.77/0.19 0.79/0.83 MIROC-ES2L (90%) 0.69/0.88 0.80/1.56 0.87/1.15 0.78/1.05 0.51/0.95 0.79/0.18 0.85/1.09 0.81/0.96 0.96/1.02 0.69/0.22 0.78/0.19 0.79/0.88 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (10%) 0.62/0.50 0.84/0.80 0.82/0.51 0.82/0.24 0.35/0.69 0.82/0.09 0.90/0.56 0.90/0.49 0.95/0.91 0.68/0.14 0.80/0.18 0.84/0.52 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (Avg) 0.73/0.61 0.88/0.97 0.89/0.58 0.91/0.38 0.46/0.76 0.85/0.09 0.93/0.73 0.93/0.68 0.96/0.96 0.70/0.15 0.81/0.19 0.86/0.56 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (90%) 0.78/0.64 0.90/1.06 0.91/0.64 0.93/0.52 0.53/0.81 0.87/0.09 0.94/0.82 0.95/0.77 0.96/1.00 0.72/0.16 0.81/0.19 0.87/0.60 UKESM1-0-LL (10%) 0.41/0.69 0.83/0.84 0.95/0.22 0.93/0.16 0.37/0.55 0.87/0.07 0.87/0.65 0.88/0.41 0.93/1.04 0.69/0.17 0.81/0.19 0.87/0.48 UKESM1-0-LL (Avg) 0.58/0.90 0.88/0.98 0.96/0.28 0.96/0.27 0.60/0.65 0.89/0.07 0.91/0.86 0.94/0.54 0.94/1.10 0.71/0.20 0.81/0.19 0.88/0.54 UKESM1-0-LL (90%) 0.66/1.07 0.90/1.08 0.97/0.34 0.97/0.35 0.70/0.74 0.91/0.08 0.92/1.01 0.96/0.59 0.95/1.14 0.73/0.21 0.82/0.19 0.88/0.57