Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Observations vs. Ensemble Means ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV' LP PDV' NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ACCESS-ESM1-5 (10%) 0.25/1.10 0.69/1.12 0.83/0.45 0.81/0.31 0.35/0.66 0.80/0.07 0.90/0.62 0.94/0.34 0.91/1.18 0.61/0.27 0.82/0.21 0.81/0.65 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (Avg) 0.36/1.28 0.77/1.25 0.88/0.53 0.85/0.38 0.48/0.82 0.85/0.08 0.93/0.70 0.95/0.41 0.92/1.25 0.63/0.29 0.82/0.22 0.82/0.68 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (90%) 0.46/1.46 0.82/1.40 0.91/0.62 0.88/0.42 0.60/0.96 0.88/0.09 0.94/0.78 0.96/0.49 0.93/1.32 0.65/0.30 0.82/0.22 0.83/0.71 CanESM5 (10%) 0.16/1.68 0.72/1.11 0.88/0.51 0.82/0.40 0.36/0.62 0.85/0.08 0.91/0.62 0.86/0.76 0.88/1.25 0.55/0.33 0.76/0.25 0.79/0.76 CanESM5 (Avg) 0.23/1.86 0.78/1.24 0.90/0.61 0.86/0.46 0.49/0.73 0.86/0.08 0.93/0.73 0.90/0.93 0.89/1.29 0.57/0.34 0.76/0.26 0.80/0.81 CanESM5 (90%) 0.30/2.11 0.82/1.36 0.92/0.74 0.89/0.53 0.60/0.85 0.88/0.09 0.94/0.85 0.93/1.10 0.90/1.33 0.59/0.35 0.76/0.26 0.81/0.85 CESM2 (10%) 0.58/0.89 0.83/0.96 0.87/0.46 0.88/0.52 0.27/0.73 0.89/0.07 0.91/0.65 0.94/0.48 0.86/1.43 0.75/0.26 0.83/0.22 0.84/0.67 CESM2 (Avg) 0.66/0.99 0.87/1.12 0.88/0.55 0.89/0.66 0.41/0.83 0.90/0.08 0.92/0.78 0.96/0.65 0.88/1.49 0.76/0.26 0.84/0.23 0.85/0.70 CESM2 (90%) 0.71/1.12 0.89/1.14 0.89/0.58 0.90/0.80 0.48/0.92 0.91/0.08 0.94/0.84 0.96/0.75 0.89/1.52 0.77/0.27 0.84/0.24 0.86/0.72 GISS-E2-1-G (10%) 0.56/1.05 0.68/1.45 0.78/0.72 0.66/0.75 0.48/0.60 0.78/0.10 0.87/0.71 0.73/1.04 0.88/1.17 0.69/0.22 0.70/0.26 0.75/0.80 GISS-E2-1-G (Avg) 0.60/1.12 0.72/1.60 0.79/0.79 0.72/0.86 0.61/0.70 0.82/0.11 0.90/0.84 0.80/1.26 0.91/1.26 0.70/0.24 0.72/0.28 0.77/0.83 GISS-E2-1-G (90%) 0.66/1.20 0.76/1.73 0.81/0.89 0.76/1.02 0.69/0.80 0.85/0.14 0.93/0.93 0.87/1.40 0.92/1.36 0.71/0.25 0.73/0.31 0.79/0.88 IPSL-CM6A-LR (10%) 0.33/1.18 0.66/1.13 0.85/0.37 0.90/0.39 0.43/0.55 0.81/0.08 0.92/0.53 0.83/0.71 0.96/0.78 0.51/0.27 0.64/0.34 0.82/0.66 IPSL-CM6A-LR (Avg) 0.43/1.35 0.76/1.28 0.94/0.49 0.93/0.46 0.60/0.63 0.85/0.08 0.94/0.66 0.88/0.90 0.97/0.84 0.57/0.29 0.65/0.34 0.84/0.70 IPSL-CM6A-LR (90%) 0.52/1.48 0.81/1.37 0.96/0.58 0.94/0.53 0.68/0.71 0.87/0.09 0.96/0.75 0.90/1.03 0.97/0.89 0.62/0.30 0.65/0.35 0.85/0.73 MIROC-ES2L (10%) 0.63/0.83 0.76/1.28 0.85/0.94 0.74/0.96 0.36/0.65 0.74/0.12 0.80/0.94 0.77/0.60 0.96/0.87 0.66/0.23 0.77/0.19 0.79/0.78 MIROC-ES2L (Avg) 0.65/0.91 0.78/1.41 0.86/1.08 0.77/1.04 0.50/0.74 0.78/0.15 0.84/1.01 0.83/0.76 0.96/0.92 0.68/0.25 0.77/0.19 0.80/0.83 MIROC-ES2L (90%) 0.67/0.97 0.78/1.48 0.88/1.14 0.79/1.12 0.57/0.80 0.82/0.18 0.86/1.08 0.87/0.88 0.97/0.96 0.69/0.26 0.78/0.19 0.80/0.86 MPI-ESM1-2-HR (10%) 0.48/0.62 0.80/0.85 0.37/0.23 0.68/0.22 0.48/0.54 0.82/0.08 0.93/0.47 0.93/0.39 0.95/0.86 0.67/0.16 0.81/0.18 0.81/0.45 MPI-ESM1-2-HR (Avg) 0.61/0.76 0.87/0.98 0.47/0.25 0.72/0.25 0.60/0.63 0.85/0.08 0.95/0.58 0.95/0.52 0.95/0.95 0.70/0.17 0.82/0.18 0.83/0.49 MPI-ESM1-2-HR (90%) 0.71/0.84 0.90/1.09 0.56/0.27 0.75/0.28 0.68/0.71 0.87/0.09 0.96/0.66 0.97/0.57 0.96/0.98 0.71/0.17 0.82/0.18 0.84/0.51 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (10%) 0.55/0.69 0.81/0.79 0.85/0.51 0.89/0.37 0.31/0.64 0.82/0.08 0.90/0.63 0.87/0.52 0.95/0.90 0.68/0.18 0.80/0.18 0.84/0.57 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (Avg) 0.67/0.79 0.88/0.96 0.89/0.61 0.92/0.46 0.47/0.77 0.85/0.09 0.93/0.75 0.94/0.67 0.95/0.93 0.70/0.19 0.81/0.19 0.86/0.61 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (90%) 0.72/0.89 0.91/1.06 0.91/0.67 0.93/0.57 0.55/0.89 0.87/0.09 0.95/0.84 0.95/0.77 0.96/0.95 0.71/0.19 0.81/0.19 0.87/0.63 UKESM1-0-LL (10%) 0.15/1.62 0.80/0.83 0.95/0.41 0.89/0.43 0.42/0.55 0.85/0.07 0.87/0.72 0.92/0.42 0.92/1.22 0.58/0.38 0.81/0.19 0.85/0.73 UKESM1-0-LL (Avg) 0.26/1.94 0.86/1.03 0.97/0.54 0.95/0.54 0.59/0.65 0.90/0.07 0.91/0.85 0.94/0.52 0.93/1.25 0.61/0.41 0.81/0.20 0.86/0.77 UKESM1-0-LL (90%) 0.30/2.11 0.90/1.17 0.97/0.63 0.97/0.63 0.68/0.76 0.91/0.08 0.93/0.97 0.95/0.63 0.94/1.28 0.63/0.43 0.81/0.20 0.87/0.80