Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Reference Dataset 1 vs. Ensemble Means ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV LP PDV NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- MPI-GE (10%) 0.59/0.59 0.65/1.09 0.59/0.49 0.70/0.34 0.25/0.43 -0.03/0.13 0.88/0.56 0.80/0.59 0.96/0.39 0.59/0.16 0.76/0.27 0.75/0.60 MPI-GE (Avg) 0.67/0.70 0.75/1.33 0.71/0.66 0.78/0.44 0.37/0.57 0.26/0.27 0.92/0.71 0.87/0.80 0.97/0.50 0.62/0.17 0.79/0.29 0.77/0.67 MPI-GE (90%) 0.74/0.81 0.83/1.56 0.80/0.83 0.84/0.56 0.47/0.72 0.56/0.37 0.95/0.86 0.91/1.05 0.98/0.61 0.65/0.19 0.82/0.30 0.79/0.74 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (10%) 0.64/0.57 0.72/0.95 0.65/0.41 0.77/0.35 0.26/0.41 -0.01/0.14 0.87/0.60 0.82/0.56 0.97/0.48 0.63/0.15 0.80/0.26 0.77/0.57 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (Avg) 0.71/0.65 0.80/1.22 0.78/0.57 0.82/0.46 0.37/0.51 0.26/0.27 0.91/0.78 0.88/0.78 0.97/0.60 0.66/0.17 0.82/0.27 0.79/0.65 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (90%) 0.76/0.75 0.87/1.38 0.83/0.71 0.85/0.59 0.44/0.68 0.46/0.35 0.94/0.92 0.94/1.02 0.98/0.75 0.68/0.18 0.83/0.28 0.81/0.71 MIROC6 (10%) 0.65/0.73 0.78/1.36 0.79/0.70 0.67/0.66 0.34/0.36 0.35/0.20 0.85/0.60 0.87/0.56 0.96/0.31 0.66/0.14 0.88/0.21 0.80/0.66 MIROC6 (Avg) 0.71/0.84 0.82/1.60 0.84/0.83 0.72/0.85 0.43/0.43 0.45/0.25 0.92/0.77 0.91/0.67 0.97/0.39 0.68/0.16 0.89/0.23 0.82/0.73 MIROC6 (90%) 0.76/0.95 0.86/1.84 0.88/0.98 0.76/0.99 0.50/0.50 0.58/0.29 0.96/0.96 0.93/0.79 0.98/0.48 0.70/0.18 0.89/0.26 0.84/0.81 MIROC-ES2L (10%) 0.69/0.68 0.70/1.38 0.80/0.77 0.70/0.74 0.18/0.38 0.12/0.29 0.78/0.82 0.63/0.61 0.92/0.51 0.62/0.16 0.79/0.27 0.73/0.77 MIROC-ES2L (Avg) 0.72/0.76 0.76/1.57 0.84/0.89 0.77/0.89 0.36/0.48 0.21/0.31 0.83/1.01 0.81/0.82 0.93/0.60 0.65/0.19 0.81/0.28 0.75/0.82 MIROC-ES2L (90%) 0.73/0.83 0.80/1.72 0.86/1.00 0.79/0.99 0.46/0.56 0.31/0.33 0.85/1.09 0.86/0.95 0.94/0.65 0.67/0.21 0.82/0.30 0.76/0.84 EC-Earth3 (10%) 0.31/0.67 0.63/1.05 0.78/0.34 0.76/0.32 0.34/0.39 0.19/0.12 0.87/0.60 0.87/0.61 0.95/0.29 0.42/0.14 0.84/0.24 0.77/0.49 EC-Earth3 (Avg) 0.49/0.80 0.75/1.31 0.86/0.42 0.81/0.41 0.39/0.46 0.36/0.21 0.93/0.69 0.90/0.74 0.97/0.42 0.52/0.21 0.85/0.25 0.79/0.60 EC-Earth3 (90%) 0.54/0.94 0.78/1.45 0.88/0.53 0.83/0.47 0.41/0.50 0.50/0.31 0.94/0.79 0.92/0.84 0.98/0.52 0.59/0.30 0.86/0.26 0.81/0.69 UKESM1-0-LL (10%) 0.48/0.58 0.56/1.08 0.80/0.32 0.74/0.30 0.16/0.40 0.08/0.16 0.84/0.76 0.78/0.68 0.97/0.48 0.59/0.14 0.85/0.22 0.77/0.52 UKESM1-0-LL (Avg) 0.63/0.79 0.73/1.38 0.88/0.41 0.84/0.38 0.28/0.44 0.28/0.22 0.87/0.92 0.85/0.84 0.98/0.69 0.65/0.17 0.86/0.23 0.79/0.62 UKESM1-0-LL (90%) 0.77/0.97 0.81/1.63 0.91/0.60 0.87/0.45 0.35/0.47 0.43/0.24 0.90/1.04 0.88/1.08 0.98/0.97 0.70/0.19 0.87/0.23 0.81/0.69