Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Reference Dataset 1 vs. Ensemble Means ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV LP PDV NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ACCESS-ESM1-5 (10%) 0.56/0.59 0.67/1.16 0.83/0.36 0.66/0.44 0.19/0.83 -0.27/0.16 0.88/0.55 0.91/0.44 0.97/0.40 0.56/0.20 0.88/0.27 0.77/0.64 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (Avg) 0.63/0.67 0.77/1.33 0.85/0.40 0.69/0.49 0.30/0.90 0.21/0.20 0.93/0.65 0.93/0.51 0.98/0.50 0.58/0.21 0.88/0.28 0.80/0.68 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (90%) 0.68/0.74 0.83/1.50 0.87/0.43 0.71/0.53 0.39/0.95 0.54/0.23 0.95/0.76 0.95/0.59 0.98/0.60 0.60/0.22 0.89/0.29 0.82/0.71 CanESM5 (10%) 0.42/0.76 0.71/1.23 0.78/0.41 0.71/0.34 0.20/0.90 -0.41/0.25 0.92/0.58 0.85/0.72 0.97/0.33 0.62/0.15 0.83/0.23 0.74/0.70 CanESM5 (Avg) 0.51/0.86 0.76/1.35 0.81/0.45 0.75/0.37 0.26/0.94 -0.23/0.26 0.93/0.68 0.88/0.82 0.97/0.38 0.64/0.16 0.84/0.23 0.76/0.73 CanESM5 (90%) 0.57/0.94 0.80/1.47 0.83/0.50 0.78/0.40 0.33/1.00 -0.05/0.28 0.95/0.79 0.90/0.93 0.98/0.42 0.66/0.17 0.84/0.23 0.77/0.76 EC-Earth3 (10%) 0.49/0.63 0.82/0.95 0.87/0.29 0.79/0.29 0.35/0.71 -0.38/0.10 0.90/0.52 0.91/0.57 0.97/0.22 0.45/0.17 0.88/0.19 0.81/0.55 EC-Earth3 (Avg) 0.58/0.69 0.86/1.07 0.89/0.36 0.86/0.32 0.43/0.78 0.42/0.19 0.94/0.63 0.93/0.66 0.98/0.27 0.52/0.20 0.88/0.20 0.84/0.60 EC-Earth3 (90%) 0.63/0.74 0.88/1.17 0.91/0.40 0.87/0.33 0.46/0.82 0.79/0.29 0.95/0.68 0.94/0.77 0.99/0.30 0.57/0.25 0.88/0.20 0.85/0.66 GISS-E2-1-G (10%) 0.49/0.94 0.57/1.51 0.74/0.59 0.58/0.62 0.01/0.94 -0.41/0.13 0.88/0.64 0.73/0.90 0.93/0.36 0.72/0.18 0.83/0.35 0.73/0.84 GISS-E2-1-G (Avg) 0.54/1.02 0.69/1.79 0.77/0.68 0.67/0.69 0.11/1.09 0.64/0.16 0.91/0.77 0.82/1.12 0.96/0.43 0.73/0.20 0.83/0.37 0.76/0.86 GISS-E2-1-G (90%) 0.56/1.10 0.75/1.93 0.79/0.73 0.72/0.77 0.30/1.18 0.76/0.17 0.93/0.84 0.88/1.29 0.97/0.50 0.73/0.21 0.83/0.38 0.78/0.89 MIROC6 (10%) 0.65/0.77 0.86/1.15 0.83/0.69 0.77/0.61 0.03/0.90 0.83/0.12 0.90/0.53 0.89/0.59 0.97/0.23 0.72/0.17 0.90/0.23 0.85/0.69 MIROC6 (Avg) 0.69/0.86 0.88/1.26 0.85/0.77 0.79/0.69 0.15/0.96 0.85/0.14 0.93/0.65 0.91/0.67 0.98/0.30 0.73/0.18 0.90/0.25 0.85/0.73 MIROC6 (90%) 0.73/0.95 0.90/1.37 0.87/0.83 0.81/0.76 0.26/1.03 0.87/0.16 0.96/0.75 0.92/0.72 0.99/0.37 0.73/0.20 0.91/0.26 0.86/0.78 MIROC-ES2L (10%) 0.67/0.71 0.75/1.19 0.81/0.79 0.78/0.67 0.03/0.94 0.68/0.15 0.75/0.90 0.71/0.77 0.92/0.52 0.69/0.19 0.81/0.25 0.76/0.79 MIROC-ES2L (Avg) 0.70/0.80 0.79/1.40 0.83/0.87 0.82/0.76 0.18/1.01 0.72/0.17 0.81/0.98 0.78/0.85 0.93/0.56 0.70/0.21 0.82/0.27 0.77/0.84 MIROC-ES2L (90%) 0.72/0.86 0.82/1.51 0.85/0.92 0.84/0.79 0.26/1.09 0.74/0.19 0.83/1.05 0.81/0.93 0.94/0.60 0.71/0.23 0.82/0.28 0.77/0.87 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (10%) 0.67/0.51 0.84/0.76 0.75/0.43 0.78/0.29 -0.01/0.85 0.69/0.10 0.89/0.58 0.86/0.57 0.98/0.48 0.64/0.16 0.82/0.23 0.82/0.59 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (Avg) 0.74/0.58 0.88/0.97 0.80/0.49 0.85/0.33 0.15/1.00 0.76/0.12 0.92/0.73 0.90/0.77 0.98/0.58 0.67/0.17 0.84/0.24 0.84/0.62 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (90%) 0.77/0.62 0.90/1.08 0.82/0.54 0.88/0.38 0.20/1.09 0.80/0.12 0.94/0.80 0.93/0.85 0.98/0.68 0.70/0.18 0.85/0.25 0.85/0.64 UKESM1-0-LL (10%) 0.55/0.57 0.79/0.88 0.90/0.32 0.80/0.26 -0.06/0.93 -0.38/0.12 0.85/0.66 0.83/0.53 0.98/0.39 0.63/0.16 0.86/0.23 0.78/0.63 UKESM1-0-LL (Avg) 0.67/0.70 0.86/1.07 0.90/0.34 0.85/0.33 0.09/1.02 0.15/0.24 0.89/0.87 0.90/0.69 0.98/0.53 0.68/0.19 0.87/0.24 0.81/0.70 UKESM1-0-LL (90%) 0.72/0.80 0.89/1.25 0.91/0.36 0.86/0.37 0.18/1.08 0.78/0.28 0.91/1.03 0.93/0.78 0.98/0.63 0.71/0.20 0.88/0.25 0.83/0.73