Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Reference Dataset 1 vs. Ensemble Means ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV LP PDV NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ACCESS-ESM1-5 (10%) 0.61/0.55 0.68/1.19 0.85/0.34 0.69/0.44 0.30/0.72 0.65/0.08 0.89/0.57 0.90/0.44 0.98/0.37 0.53/0.18 0.89/0.27 0.81/0.56 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (Avg) 0.67/0.61 0.77/1.32 0.86/0.36 0.71/0.49 0.39/0.79 0.77/0.11 0.93/0.64 0.93/0.52 0.98/0.46 0.56/0.20 0.89/0.28 0.83/0.60 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (90%) 0.72/0.65 0.82/1.45 0.88/0.38 0.74/0.54 0.49/0.87 0.84/0.14 0.94/0.75 0.94/0.61 0.98/0.54 0.58/0.21 0.90/0.29 0.85/0.63 CanESM5 (10%) 0.57/0.64 0.70/1.16 0.78/0.37 0.72/0.32 0.22/0.78 0.73/0.09 0.91/0.61 0.86/0.66 0.97/0.32 0.58/0.14 0.84/0.22 0.80/0.57 CanESM5 (Avg) 0.61/0.71 0.77/1.34 0.81/0.41 0.77/0.36 0.32/0.86 0.80/0.10 0.92/0.72 0.90/0.81 0.97/0.35 0.61/0.14 0.85/0.23 0.81/0.60 CanESM5 (90%) 0.64/0.77 0.82/1.49 0.84/0.45 0.80/0.39 0.38/0.92 0.83/0.11 0.94/0.84 0.92/0.95 0.98/0.40 0.64/0.15 0.86/0.23 0.82/0.64 CESM2 (10%) 0.69/0.60 0.84/1.06 0.93/0.51 0.85/0.49 0.10/0.68 0.85/0.08 0.91/0.66 0.94/0.55 0.95/0.34 0.81/0.12 0.91/0.23 0.87/0.59 CESM2 (Avg) 0.73/0.65 0.86/1.18 0.93/0.59 0.88/0.53 0.36/0.79 0.87/0.09 0.93/0.77 0.96/0.68 0.96/0.40 0.81/0.14 0.91/0.25 0.88/0.62 CESM2 (90%) 0.76/0.67 0.87/1.23 0.94/0.66 0.90/0.54 0.41/0.83 0.88/0.10 0.94/0.83 0.96/0.73 0.96/0.46 0.81/0.14 0.91/0.26 0.89/0.65 GISS-E2-1-G (10%) 0.51/0.92 0.62/1.68 0.76/0.61 0.65/0.58 0.26/0.75 0.71/0.12 0.89/0.67 0.74/0.99 0.95/0.36 0.72/0.17 0.82/0.36 0.76/0.76 GISS-E2-1-G (Avg) 0.54/0.99 0.68/1.81 0.77/0.65 0.68/0.65 0.34/0.84 0.74/0.13 0.91/0.77 0.81/1.13 0.96/0.42 0.73/0.18 0.82/0.37 0.77/0.80 GISS-E2-1-G (90%) 0.57/1.06 0.73/1.96 0.79/0.74 0.72/0.73 0.45/0.94 0.77/0.14 0.93/0.84 0.86/1.33 0.97/0.50 0.74/0.20 0.83/0.39 0.79/0.84 IPSL-CM6A-LR (10%) 0.62/0.53 0.71/1.09 0.80/0.39 0.69/0.38 0.17/0.77 0.64/0.09 0.90/0.62 0.81/0.81 0.97/0.43 0.60/0.16 0.78/0.26 0.80/0.61 IPSL-CM6A-LR (Avg) 0.70/0.62 0.79/1.27 0.84/0.44 0.74/0.46 0.37/0.85 0.78/0.10 0.93/0.74 0.85/0.98 0.98/0.54 0.65/0.16 0.79/0.26 0.82/0.64 IPSL-CM6A-LR (90%) 0.74/0.65 0.84/1.46 0.85/0.49 0.79/0.50 0.46/0.93 0.82/0.11 0.94/0.83 0.87/1.09 0.98/0.65 0.67/0.17 0.79/0.27 0.83/0.66 MIROC-ES2L (10%) 0.68/0.70 0.77/1.25 0.82/0.77 0.81/0.67 0.08/0.81 0.70/0.14 0.78/0.90 0.76/0.66 0.92/0.50 0.68/0.17 0.81/0.26 0.77/0.76 MIROC-ES2L (Avg) 0.70/0.77 0.80/1.36 0.84/0.85 0.82/0.74 0.27/0.92 0.74/0.17 0.81/0.97 0.82/0.78 0.93/0.55 0.69/0.20 0.81/0.28 0.78/0.81 MIROC-ES2L (90%) 0.71/0.84 0.82/1.41 0.85/0.88 0.84/0.78 0.32/1.01 0.76/0.18 0.83/1.01 0.84/0.87 0.93/0.58 0.70/0.21 0.82/0.29 0.79/0.84 MPI-ESM1-2-HR (10%) 0.69/0.50 0.83/0.92 0.57/0.48 0.73/0.33 0.27/0.71 0.66/0.10 0.93/0.51 0.92/0.42 0.98/0.33 0.59/0.14 0.83/0.22 0.83/0.54 MPI-ESM1-2-HR (Avg) 0.73/0.54 0.88/1.05 0.63/0.55 0.77/0.36 0.39/0.77 0.73/0.12 0.95/0.57 0.94/0.57 0.98/0.40 0.63/0.15 0.84/0.23 0.84/0.56 MPI-ESM1-2-HR (90%) 0.76/0.57 0.89/1.16 0.67/0.60 0.79/0.37 0.45/0.84 0.77/0.12 0.96/0.64 0.96/0.63 0.99/0.44 0.65/0.15 0.84/0.23 0.85/0.58 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (10%) 0.66/0.51 0.81/0.84 0.73/0.42 0.82/0.28 0.15/0.70 0.74/0.10 0.89/0.61 0.85/0.58 0.98/0.41 0.66/0.16 0.83/0.23 0.83/0.56 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (Avg) 0.75/0.57 0.88/0.99 0.80/0.49 0.86/0.33 0.29/0.85 0.77/0.11 0.92/0.75 0.92/0.72 0.98/0.51 0.67/0.16 0.84/0.24 0.84/0.59 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (90%) 0.78/0.64 0.90/1.08 0.83/0.52 0.88/0.37 0.42/0.94 0.79/0.12 0.94/0.80 0.94/0.86 0.98/0.62 0.69/0.17 0.85/0.25 0.86/0.60 UKESM1-0-LL (10%) 0.60/0.52 0.77/0.86 0.89/0.31 0.78/0.25 -0.01/0.80 0.62/0.07 0.86/0.72 0.88/0.60 0.98/0.32 0.58/0.15 0.87/0.23 0.82/0.55 UKESM1-0-LL (Avg) 0.70/0.64 0.86/1.06 0.90/0.34 0.84/0.34 0.21/0.93 0.83/0.10 0.90/0.85 0.90/0.67 0.98/0.42 0.62/0.17 0.88/0.25 0.85/0.59 UKESM1-0-LL (90%) 0.74/0.69 0.90/1.32 0.91/0.37 0.89/0.37 0.31/1.02 0.89/0.13 0.92/0.98 0.91/0.78 0.99/0.55 0.64/0.17 0.88/0.26 0.86/0.63