Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Observations vs. Ensemble Means ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV LP PDV NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ACCESS-ESM1-5 (10%) 0.58/0.56 0.63/1.12 0.84/0.31 0.69/0.41 0.19/0.75 -0.37/0.09 0.90/0.55 0.91/0.45 0.97/0.33 0.50/0.19 0.89/0.26 0.78/0.58 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (Avg) 0.64/0.63 0.74/1.38 0.87/0.34 0.72/0.50 0.34/0.83 0.68/0.12 0.92/0.66 0.93/0.52 0.98/0.44 0.54/0.20 0.89/0.28 0.82/0.62 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (90%) 0.69/0.68 0.80/1.51 0.89/0.36 0.73/0.53 0.40/0.91 0.82/0.15 0.94/0.71 0.94/0.55 0.98/0.51 0.56/0.22 0.90/0.30 0.84/0.64 CanESM5 (10%) 0.57/0.65 0.70/1.16 0.79/0.37 0.73/0.32 0.20/0.82 0.73/0.09 0.91/0.58 0.87/0.65 0.96/0.31 0.55/0.15 0.84/0.23 0.80/0.57 CanESM5 (Avg) 0.62/0.70 0.77/1.33 0.82/0.41 0.78/0.35 0.29/0.91 0.80/0.10 0.93/0.68 0.90/0.77 0.97/0.35 0.58/0.15 0.85/0.23 0.81/0.60 CanESM5 (90%) 0.66/0.76 0.82/1.47 0.84/0.44 0.82/0.38 0.38/1.01 0.84/0.11 0.95/0.80 0.92/0.89 0.98/0.39 0.61/0.16 0.85/0.23 0.83/0.63 EC-Earth3 (10%) 0.49/0.67 0.63/1.03 0.85/0.39 0.78/0.28 0.40/0.69 -0.34/0.09 0.90/0.63 0.91/0.60 0.98/0.19 0.46/0.19 0.87/0.20 0.81/0.60 EC-Earth3 (Avg) 0.56/0.74 0.81/1.22 0.87/0.50 0.85/0.37 0.44/0.79 0.37/0.18 0.93/0.71 0.94/0.68 0.98/0.26 0.49/0.22 0.88/0.21 0.82/0.65 EC-Earth3 (90%) 0.60/0.82 0.85/1.29 0.88/0.61 0.87/0.40 0.49/0.85 0.77/0.24 0.94/0.80 0.95/0.79 0.99/0.29 0.51/0.23 0.88/0.21 0.84/0.68 EC-Earth3-Veg (10%) 0.55/0.67 0.80/0.98 0.83/0.46 0.79/0.33 0.33/0.74 0.48/0.10 0.92/0.58 0.90/0.49 0.98/0.22 0.47/0.18 0.88/0.20 0.83/0.56 EC-Earth3-Veg (Avg) 0.59/0.72 0.85/1.12 0.87/0.56 0.84/0.41 0.40/0.83 0.70/0.14 0.93/0.67 0.95/0.63 0.98/0.27 0.50/0.21 0.88/0.21 0.84/0.63 EC-Earth3-Veg (90%) 0.62/0.73 0.87/1.22 0.88/0.63 0.86/0.48 0.42/0.91 0.77/0.20 0.94/0.72 0.96/0.70 0.99/0.30 0.52/0.22 0.88/0.21 0.85/0.65 GISS-E2-1-G (10%) 0.51/0.91 0.59/1.62 0.72/0.58 0.62/0.56 0.25/0.78 0.54/0.10 0.88/0.64 0.70/0.85 0.93/0.32 0.71/0.17 0.82/0.36 0.75/0.77 GISS-E2-1-G (Avg) 0.55/0.98 0.67/1.84 0.77/0.67 0.67/0.66 0.33/0.84 0.72/0.14 0.91/0.76 0.81/1.17 0.96/0.41 0.72/0.19 0.82/0.38 0.77/0.81 GISS-E2-1-G (90%) 0.58/1.03 0.73/2.00 0.79/0.72 0.70/0.74 0.39/0.92 0.80/0.17 0.92/0.84 0.89/1.39 0.97/0.45 0.73/0.20 0.82/0.39 0.79/0.84 MIROC6 (10%) 0.65/0.79 0.86/1.09 0.84/0.69 0.78/0.60 0.03/0.80 0.83/0.12 0.90/0.54 0.89/0.60 0.97/0.23 0.70/0.16 0.89/0.24 0.85/0.68 MIROC6 (Avg) 0.68/0.85 0.88/1.20 0.86/0.76 0.80/0.67 0.26/0.92 0.85/0.14 0.93/0.66 0.91/0.66 0.98/0.29 0.71/0.18 0.89/0.26 0.85/0.72 MIROC6 (90%) 0.71/0.92 0.90/1.32 0.87/0.82 0.82/0.75 0.43/1.04 0.87/0.16 0.95/0.78 0.92/0.73 0.99/0.34 0.72/0.19 0.89/0.27 0.86/0.77 MIROC-ES2L (10%) 0.67/0.70 0.75/1.27 0.82/0.76 0.78/0.67 0.04/0.88 0.71/0.15 0.77/0.84 0.78/0.68 0.92/0.50 0.67/0.18 0.80/0.27 0.76/0.77 MIROC-ES2L (Avg) 0.69/0.78 0.79/1.36 0.84/0.84 0.82/0.73 0.22/0.97 0.75/0.16 0.81/0.97 0.81/0.78 0.93/0.53 0.69/0.20 0.80/0.28 0.78/0.81 MIROC-ES2L (90%) 0.70/0.81 0.81/1.42 0.85/0.91 0.83/0.77 0.34/1.06 0.77/0.18 0.82/1.02 0.84/0.83 0.94/0.57 0.69/0.21 0.81/0.29 0.78/0.83 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (10%) 0.66/0.53 0.85/0.80 0.74/0.43 0.80/0.30 -0.01/0.83 0.74/0.10 0.90/0.56 0.89/0.51 0.97/0.38 0.62/0.16 0.81/0.24 0.82/0.57 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (Avg) 0.75/0.57 0.88/0.96 0.79/0.48 0.85/0.34 0.19/0.96 0.78/0.11 0.92/0.72 0.92/0.74 0.98/0.47 0.67/0.16 0.83/0.25 0.84/0.60 MPI-ESM1-2-LR (90%) 0.78/0.63 0.90/1.07 0.82/0.54 0.87/0.36 0.29/1.03 0.80/0.12 0.93/0.78 0.95/0.88 0.98/0.58 0.68/0.17 0.84/0.25 0.85/0.62