Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Reference Dataset 1 vs. Ensemble Means ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV LP PDV NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ACCESS-ESM1-5 (10%) 0.47/0.61 0.45/1.19 0.68/0.42 0.64/0.44 0.31/0.37 0.15/0.11 0.84/0.68 0.86/0.43 0.97/0.40 0.60/0.14 0.87/0.22 0.75/0.55 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (Avg) 0.58/0.76 0.66/1.45 0.79/0.52 0.69/0.54 0.39/0.42 0.48/0.15 0.89/0.85 0.91/0.58 0.97/0.51 0.63/0.17 0.88/0.23 0.78/0.59 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (90%) 0.68/0.93 0.77/1.74 0.84/0.62 0.74/0.65 0.47/0.46 0.67/0.18 0.93/0.97 0.94/0.74 0.98/0.63 0.66/0.19 0.89/0.24 0.80/0.64 CanESM2 (10%) 0.45/0.92 0.58/1.49 0.81/0.45 0.73/0.52 0.34/0.35 0.16/0.17 0.82/0.79 0.82/0.75 0.95/0.41 0.67/0.14 0.84/0.26 0.75/0.65 CanESM2 (Avg) 0.50/1.09 0.65/1.80 0.84/0.53 0.79/0.61 0.44/0.40 0.42/0.20 0.86/0.99 0.86/0.94 0.96/0.50 0.69/0.15 0.85/0.26 0.77/0.71 CanESM2 (90%) 0.54/1.24 0.70/2.19 0.87/0.61 0.82/0.71 0.50/0.45 0.59/0.22 0.90/1.18 0.90/1.13 0.97/0.59 0.71/0.16 0.85/0.27 0.79/0.78 CanESM5 (10%) 0.31/0.95 0.42/1.29 0.70/0.43 0.68/0.34 0.29/0.37 0.19/0.23 0.86/0.68 0.79/0.75 0.95/0.42 0.60/0.18 0.82/0.26 0.72/0.66 CanESM5 (Avg) 0.41/1.23 0.62/1.55 0.77/0.58 0.76/0.42 0.38/0.40 0.31/0.26 0.90/0.82 0.84/0.99 0.96/0.48 0.63/0.21 0.83/0.27 0.74/0.72 CanESM5 (90%) 0.52/1.49 0.74/1.95 0.81/0.69 0.81/0.50 0.48/0.43 0.42/0.30 0.93/0.95 0.88/1.19 0.97/0.58 0.67/0.24 0.84/0.28 0.76/0.79 CESM1 (10%) 0.46/0.77 0.65/1.44 0.88/0.46 0.83/0.39 0.04/0.43 -0.01/0.14 0.84/0.70 0.86/0.56 0.92/0.46 0.69/0.11 0.86/0.22 0.77/0.59 CESM1 (Avg) 0.56/0.88 0.72/1.69 0.91/0.56 0.87/0.48 0.20/0.51 0.37/0.23 0.87/0.90 0.90/0.73 0.94/0.55 0.71/0.12 0.87/0.23 0.79/0.67 CESM1 (90%) 0.62/0.97 0.76/1.95 0.92/0.67 0.90/0.60 0.32/0.60 0.51/0.30 0.92/1.03 0.93/0.89 0.96/0.63 0.72/0.13 0.87/0.24 0.81/0.74 CESM2 (10%) 0.65/0.63 0.71/1.21 0.90/0.47 0.86/0.48 0.17/0.38 0.00/0.14 0.85/0.66 0.88/0.54 0.92/0.47 0.72/0.13 0.90/0.21 0.80/0.59 CESM2 (Avg) 0.70/0.73 0.79/1.50 0.93/0.63 0.88/0.62 0.28/0.45 0.22/0.25 0.91/0.89 0.93/0.73 0.94/0.55 0.73/0.15 0.91/0.24 0.82/0.68 CESM2 (90%) 0.75/0.83 0.84/1.81 0.94/0.79 0.91/0.78 0.38/0.53 0.41/0.39 0.94/1.10 0.96/0.95 0.96/0.64 0.75/0.17 0.91/0.26 0.84/0.78 CSIRO-Mk360 (10%) 0.37/0.70 0.40/1.36 0.40/0.63 0.46/0.51 0.17/0.43 -0.07/0.16 0.67/0.95 0.73/0.60 0.94/0.40 0.49/0.14 0.74/0.36 0.63/0.70 CSIRO-Mk360 (Avg) 0.47/0.84 0.58/1.62 0.51/0.74 0.55/0.61 0.32/0.51 0.30/0.28 0.79/1.13 0.82/0.77 0.96/0.47 0.52/0.15 0.75/0.37 0.66/0.76 CSIRO-Mk360 (90%) 0.55/0.94 0.71/1.84 0.59/0.86 0.63/0.70 0.41/0.58 0.56/0.37 0.86/1.32 0.88/0.93 0.97/0.53 0.54/0.17 0.77/0.39 0.68/0.80 E3SMv1 (10%) 0.51/0.58 0.37/1.15 0.84/0.39 0.75/0.36 0.17/0.41 -0.09/0.16 0.88/0.44 0.87/0.38 0.97/0.57 0.51/0.19 0.84/0.22 0.76/0.56 E3SMv1 (Avg) 0.65/0.71 0.73/1.39 0.88/0.50 0.82/0.47 0.31/0.44 0.15/0.24 0.92/0.70 0.92/0.58 0.98/0.70 0.57/0.21 0.86/0.24 0.80/0.63 E3SMv1 (90%) 0.74/0.83 0.80/1.73 0.91/0.61 0.85/0.58 0.41/0.47 0.33/0.42 0.96/0.83 0.96/0.70 0.98/0.83 0.60/0.22 0.87/0.25 0.82/0.69 E3SMv2 (10%) 0.63/0.56 0.68/1.05 0.89/0.30 0.81/0.35 0.22/0.46 -0.00/0.17 0.85/0.69 0.88/0.46 0.97/0.46 0.51/0.19 0.88/0.20 0.80/0.56 E3SMv2 (Avg) 0.69/0.70 0.77/1.33 0.93/0.48 0.88/0.49 0.29/0.49 0.16/0.24 0.89/0.83 0.92/0.59 0.98/0.63 0.55/0.20 0.89/0.21 0.82/0.63 E3SMv2 (90%) 0.73/0.82 0.86/1.53 0.95/0.60 0.92/0.62 0.36/0.53 0.35/0.35 0.92/0.92 0.95/0.79 0.98/0.78 0.58/0.21 0.90/0.23 0.83/0.71 GFDL-CM3 (10%) 0.46/0.82 -0.53/1.51 0.84/0.49 0.76/0.58 0.43/0.30 0.02/0.17 0.85/0.59 0.85/0.55 0.97/0.56 0.48/0.15 0.79/0.27 0.73/0.66 GFDL-CM3 (Avg) 0.55/0.97 0.16/2.10 0.87/0.68 0.79/0.71 0.54/0.34 0.37/0.20 0.91/0.75 0.90/0.70 0.98/0.77 0.54/0.17 0.80/0.28 0.77/0.73 GFDL-CM3 (90%) 0.61/1.10 0.73/2.57 0.89/0.84 0.82/0.80 0.61/0.38 0.51/0.22 0.93/0.86 0.92/0.82 0.98/0.93 0.59/0.19 0.81/0.28 0.80/0.75 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (10%) 0.55/0.89 0.63/1.51 0.79/0.64 0.62/0.59 0.27/0.41 0.05/0.15 0.85/0.60 0.76/0.59 0.96/0.45 0.58/0.16 0.81/0.32 0.75/0.73 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (Avg) 0.62/1.00 0.72/1.87 0.84/0.88 0.73/0.83 0.42/0.53 0.25/0.28 0.90/0.80 0.86/0.86 0.97/0.63 0.61/0.18 0.82/0.35 0.77/0.84 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (90%) 0.66/1.10 0.77/2.33 0.87/1.12 0.80/1.08 0.51/0.66 0.45/0.35 0.93/0.93 0.92/1.25 0.97/0.79 0.64/0.20 0.83/0.37 0.79/0.92 GFDL-SPEAR (10%) 0.62/0.51 0.63/1.06 0.87/0.31 0.86/0.28 0.32/0.36 -0.06/0.15 0.84/0.59 0.88/0.41 0.97/0.31 0.65/0.12 0.86/0.22 0.80/0.47 GFDL-SPEAR (Avg) 0.70/0.64 0.76/1.28 0.90/0.41 0.89/0.35 0.40/0.42 0.30/0.21 0.91/0.75 0.93/0.50 0.98/0.40 0.69/0.14 0.87/0.23 0.83/0.53 GFDL-SPEAR (90%) 0.76/0.75 0.84/1.51 0.92/0.50 0.91/0.44 0.45/0.49 0.44/0.38 0.94/0.91 0.96/0.59 0.98/0.47 0.72/0.15 0.88/0.23 0.85/0.60 IPSL-CM6A (10%) 0.62/0.62 0.59/1.42 0.76/0.40 0.74/0.46 0.28/0.38 0.01/0.14 0.90/0.56 0.71/0.78 0.98/0.53 0.65/0.14 0.81/0.27 0.77/0.62 IPSL-CM6A (Avg) 0.66/0.69 0.65/1.56 0.83/0.53 0.78/0.52 0.43/0.44 0.24/0.22 0.93/0.70 0.80/1.05 0.98/0.69 0.67/0.15 0.82/0.28 0.78/0.66 IPSL-CM6A (90%) 0.69/0.76 0.68/1.59 0.86/0.64 0.79/0.56 0.45/0.50 0.33/0.34 0.95/0.78 0.84/1.15 0.98/0.82 0.68/0.17 0.82/0.28 0.79/0.68 MPI-GE (10%) 0.59/0.59 0.65/1.09 0.59/0.49 0.70/0.34 0.25/0.43 -0.03/0.13 0.88/0.56 0.80/0.59 0.96/0.39 0.59/0.16 0.76/0.27 0.75/0.60 MPI-GE (Avg) 0.67/0.70 0.75/1.33 0.71/0.66 0.78/0.44 0.37/0.57 0.26/0.27 0.92/0.71 0.87/0.80 0.97/0.50 0.62/0.17 0.79/0.29 0.77/0.67 MPI-GE (90%) 0.74/0.81 0.83/1.56 0.80/0.83 0.84/0.56 0.47/0.72 0.56/0.37 0.95/0.86 0.91/1.05 0.98/0.61 0.65/0.19 0.82/0.30 0.79/0.74 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (10%) 0.64/0.57 0.72/0.95 0.65/0.41 0.77/0.35 0.26/0.41 -0.01/0.14 0.87/0.60 0.82/0.56 0.97/0.48 0.63/0.15 0.80/0.26 0.77/0.57 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (Avg) 0.71/0.65 0.80/1.22 0.78/0.57 0.82/0.46 0.37/0.51 0.26/0.27 0.91/0.78 0.88/0.78 0.97/0.60 0.66/0.17 0.82/0.27 0.79/0.65 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (90%) 0.76/0.75 0.87/1.38 0.83/0.71 0.85/0.59 0.44/0.68 0.46/0.35 0.94/0.92 0.94/1.02 0.98/0.75 0.68/0.18 0.83/0.28 0.81/0.71 MIROC6 (10%) 0.65/0.73 0.78/1.36 0.79/0.70 0.67/0.66 0.34/0.36 0.35/0.20 0.85/0.60 0.87/0.56 0.96/0.31 0.66/0.14 0.88/0.21 0.80/0.66 MIROC6 (Avg) 0.71/0.84 0.82/1.60 0.84/0.83 0.72/0.85 0.43/0.43 0.45/0.25 0.92/0.77 0.91/0.67 0.97/0.39 0.68/0.16 0.89/0.23 0.82/0.73 MIROC6 (90%) 0.76/0.95 0.86/1.84 0.88/0.98 0.76/0.99 0.50/0.50 0.58/0.29 0.96/0.96 0.93/0.79 0.98/0.48 0.70/0.18 0.89/0.26 0.84/0.81 MIROC-ES2L (10%) 0.69/0.68 0.70/1.38 0.80/0.77 0.70/0.74 0.18/0.38 0.12/0.29 0.78/0.82 0.63/0.61 0.92/0.51 0.62/0.16 0.79/0.27 0.73/0.77 MIROC-ES2L (Avg) 0.72/0.76 0.76/1.57 0.84/0.89 0.77/0.89 0.36/0.48 0.21/0.31 0.83/1.01 0.81/0.82 0.93/0.60 0.65/0.19 0.81/0.28 0.75/0.82 MIROC-ES2L (90%) 0.73/0.83 0.80/1.72 0.86/1.00 0.79/0.99 0.46/0.56 0.31/0.33 0.85/1.09 0.86/0.95 0.94/0.65 0.67/0.21 0.82/0.30 0.76/0.84 EC-Earth3 (10%) 0.31/0.67 0.63/1.05 0.78/0.34 0.76/0.32 0.34/0.39 0.19/0.12 0.87/0.60 0.87/0.61 0.95/0.29 0.42/0.14 0.84/0.24 0.77/0.49 EC-Earth3 (Avg) 0.49/0.80 0.75/1.31 0.86/0.42 0.81/0.41 0.39/0.46 0.36/0.21 0.93/0.69 0.90/0.74 0.97/0.42 0.52/0.21 0.85/0.25 0.79/0.60 EC-Earth3 (90%) 0.54/0.94 0.78/1.45 0.88/0.53 0.83/0.47 0.41/0.50 0.50/0.31 0.94/0.79 0.92/0.84 0.98/0.52 0.59/0.30 0.86/0.26 0.81/0.69