Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Reference Dataset 1 vs. Ensemble Means ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV LP PDV NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ACCESS-ESM1-5 (10%) 0.17/2.24 0.45/1.38 0.76/0.79 0.66/0.70 0.19/0.44 0.54/0.56 0.84/0.67 0.87/0.46 0.92/0.43 0.57/0.46 0.89/0.29 0.75/1.13 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (Avg) 0.22/2.67 0.60/1.62 0.87/0.93 0.76/0.90 0.29/0.50 0.60/0.60 0.90/0.80 0.92/0.58 0.94/0.56 0.60/0.49 0.89/0.31 0.77/1.19 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (90%) 0.28/2.96 0.70/1.82 0.91/1.13 0.81/1.09 0.36/0.55 0.65/0.62 0.93/0.93 0.95/0.73 0.96/0.65 0.62/0.51 0.89/0.33 0.79/1.26 CanESM2 (10%) 0.10/2.74 0.36/2.00 0.68/0.80 0.71/0.73 0.35/0.39 0.48/0.62 0.79/0.83 0.85/0.73 0.89/0.61 0.61/0.48 0.82/0.26 0.70/1.24 CanESM2 (Avg) 0.15/3.09 0.46/2.31 0.78/0.96 0.78/0.89 0.41/0.43 0.53/0.64 0.85/1.01 0.89/0.91 0.92/0.69 0.63/0.50 0.82/0.26 0.72/1.32 CanESM2 (90%) 0.20/3.44 0.54/2.60 0.83/1.13 0.83/1.01 0.46/0.45 0.58/0.66 0.90/1.19 0.92/1.09 0.93/0.77 0.65/0.51 0.83/0.27 0.74/1.40 CanESM5 (10%) 0.12/4.12 0.25/2.02 0.60/1.33 0.54/1.17 0.37/0.39 0.41/1.06 0.81/0.68 0.82/0.68 0.85/0.64 0.48/0.90 0.83/0.26 0.65/1.81 CanESM5 (Avg) 0.16/4.44 0.35/2.20 0.71/1.54 0.69/1.37 0.40/0.41 0.44/1.07 0.88/0.92 0.87/0.97 0.89/0.75 0.50/0.92 0.83/0.27 0.68/1.89 CanESM5 (90%) 0.19/4.80 0.46/2.39 0.81/1.72 0.81/1.59 0.44/0.43 0.47/1.10 0.93/1.19 0.91/1.20 0.91/0.86 0.51/0.94 0.84/0.28 0.70/1.98 CESM1 (10%) 0.24/2.02 0.61/1.52 0.85/0.64 0.76/0.79 0.05/0.54 0.36/0.57 0.77/0.93 0.86/0.76 0.87/0.67 0.60/0.45 0.85/0.22 0.73/1.16 CESM1 (Avg) 0.29/2.45 0.69/1.81 0.90/0.82 0.85/1.00 0.15/0.61 0.46/0.60 0.83/1.11 0.89/0.97 0.91/0.78 0.62/0.48 0.86/0.24 0.75/1.24 CESM1 (90%) 0.35/2.86 0.75/2.22 0.93/0.99 0.89/1.18 0.21/0.67 0.54/0.62 0.88/1.31 0.91/1.14 0.92/0.86 0.65/0.50 0.87/0.25 0.76/1.30 CESM2 (10%) 0.43/1.54 0.60/1.58 0.89/0.63 0.82/0.75 -0.04/0.77 0.28/0.53 0.81/0.79 0.87/0.67 0.86/0.60 0.63/0.43 0.87/0.27 0.76/1.09 CESM2 (Avg) 0.49/1.85 0.69/1.82 0.93/0.74 0.86/0.96 0.01/0.93 0.37/0.55 0.88/0.99 0.91/0.87 0.90/0.73 0.66/0.45 0.88/0.30 0.77/1.16 CESM2 (90%) 0.56/2.16 0.75/2.07 0.94/0.84 0.88/1.14 0.07/1.06 0.45/0.57 0.92/1.19 0.94/1.06 0.93/0.85 0.69/0.47 0.89/0.31 0.79/1.23 CSIRO-Mk360 (10%) 0.21/2.53 0.21/1.95 0.17/1.22 0.35/1.12 0.11/0.53 0.42/0.57 0.77/0.83 0.68/0.53 0.87/0.58 0.39/0.48 0.78/0.41 0.58/1.32 CSIRO-Mk360 (Avg) 0.28/2.94 0.34/2.18 0.35/1.58 0.48/1.34 0.20/0.61 0.51/0.66 0.85/1.01 0.84/0.70 0.92/0.70 0.43/0.55 0.79/0.44 0.61/1.50 CSIRO-Mk360 (90%) 0.33/3.30 0.45/2.40 0.49/1.80 0.59/1.54 0.25/0.70 0.57/0.72 0.90/1.15 0.91/0.94 0.94/0.82 0.46/0.60 0.81/0.46 0.64/1.60 E3SMv1 (10%) 0.27/2.03 0.51/1.25 0.84/1.00 0.75/0.92 0.14/0.36 0.28/0.75 0.86/0.58 0.88/0.51 0.95/0.41 0.47/0.66 0.86/0.22 0.75/1.25 E3SMv1 (Avg) 0.35/2.94 0.75/1.52 0.87/1.22 0.81/1.15 0.23/0.40 0.33/0.87 0.91/0.75 0.93/0.67 0.97/0.56 0.53/0.76 0.87/0.23 0.78/1.45 E3SMv1 (90%) 0.46/3.46 0.81/1.91 0.90/1.38 0.85/1.32 0.36/0.43 0.43/0.91 0.94/0.93 0.95/0.77 0.98/0.63 0.56/0.79 0.88/0.25 0.80/1.56 E3SMv2 (10%) 0.28/1.92 0.68/1.17 0.92/0.47 0.84/0.62 0.13/0.38 0.25/0.62 0.82/0.72 0.89/0.51 0.96/0.41 0.49/0.52 0.89/0.19 0.78/1.02 E3SMv2 (Avg) 0.37/2.35 0.77/1.41 0.94/0.64 0.88/0.76 0.21/0.41 0.33/0.64 0.86/0.92 0.92/0.59 0.97/0.52 0.53/0.54 0.90/0.20 0.80/1.11 E3SMv2 (90%) 0.45/2.81 0.81/1.61 0.95/0.75 0.91/0.92 0.29/0.43 0.43/0.66 0.90/1.07 0.94/0.72 0.98/0.62 0.56/0.55 0.90/0.21 0.81/1.17 GFDL-CM3 (10%) 0.20/2.27 -0.39/1.81 0.80/0.72 0.72/0.73 0.41/0.39 0.34/0.73 0.45/0.69 0.89/0.72 0.93/0.52 0.39/0.59 0.79/0.27 0.67/1.29 GFDL-CM3 (Avg) 0.27/2.67 0.03/2.54 0.86/0.86 0.78/1.03 0.47/0.43 0.40/0.75 0.85/1.04 0.91/0.86 0.95/0.65 0.42/0.62 0.80/0.28 0.71/1.37 GFDL-CM3 (90%) 0.33/2.95 0.61/3.07 0.88/0.95 0.82/1.27 0.51/0.46 0.44/0.78 0.90/1.19 0.93/1.05 0.96/0.70 0.45/0.64 0.81/0.29 0.74/1.45 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (10%) 0.40/1.17 0.62/1.32 0.80/0.48 0.72/0.46 0.37/0.47 0.29/0.35 0.87/0.71 0.85/0.58 0.94/0.43 0.55/0.27 0.80/0.32 0.75/0.78 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (Avg) 0.49/1.41 0.72/1.51 0.85/0.62 0.78/0.65 0.43/0.53 0.38/0.37 0.90/0.85 0.91/0.81 0.95/0.49 0.59/0.29 0.81/0.34 0.77/0.86 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (90%) 0.54/1.55 0.79/1.68 0.89/0.80 0.83/0.79 0.49/0.57 0.47/0.38 0.92/1.03 0.93/1.01 0.97/0.57 0.61/0.31 0.82/0.36 0.79/0.92 GFDL-SPEAR (10%) 0.38/1.75 0.67/1.22 0.87/0.59 0.83/0.60 0.22/0.55 0.46/0.58 0.81/0.63 0.84/0.45 0.96/0.37 0.64/0.45 0.88/0.21 0.80/1.00 GFDL-SPEAR (Avg) 0.44/2.19 0.76/1.47 0.90/0.72 0.87/0.80 0.28/0.63 0.54/0.59 0.90/0.81 0.92/0.61 0.97/0.43 0.67/0.47 0.89/0.22 0.81/1.09 GFDL-SPEAR (90%) 0.50/2.60 0.83/1.71 0.91/0.84 0.90/0.95 0.32/0.68 0.61/0.61 0.94/1.03 0.96/0.77 0.98/0.49 0.69/0.49 0.89/0.23 0.83/1.21 IPSL-CM6A (10%) 0.22/3.52 0.45/1.56 0.75/1.28 0.63/1.06 0.37/0.39 0.38/0.89 0.85/1.02 0.82/0.89 0.96/0.35 0.38/0.76 0.81/0.25 0.71/1.58 IPSL-CM6A (Avg) 0.26/3.85 0.53/1.96 0.79/1.51 0.73/1.27 0.42/0.42 0.43/0.91 0.88/1.10 0.87/0.99 0.97/0.49 0.41/0.79 0.82/0.26 0.73/1.69 IPSL-CM6A (90%) 0.28/4.10 0.57/2.10 0.81/1.65 0.77/1.46 0.45/0.44 0.47/0.92 0.90/1.15 0.87/1.05 0.98/0.56 0.44/0.80 0.82/0.26 0.74/1.72 MPI-GE (10%) 0.27/1.45 0.34/1.27 0.57/0.63 0.63/0.58 0.43/0.41 0.27/0.40 0.85/0.67 0.79/0.62 0.94/0.42 0.55/0.32 0.77/0.26 0.70/0.89 MPI-GE (Avg) 0.37/1.83 0.58/1.64 0.70/0.85 0.74/0.72 0.48/0.44 0.39/0.42 0.90/0.86 0.88/0.91 0.95/0.50 0.59/0.34 0.79/0.28 0.73/0.98 MPI-GE (90%) 0.48/2.17 0.76/2.03 0.79/1.08 0.80/0.87 0.53/0.48 0.52/0.44 0.93/1.04 0.93/1.18 0.97/0.57 0.63/0.36 0.82/0.29 0.76/1.06 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (10%) 0.31/1.85 0.51/1.12 0.61/0.78 0.68/0.68 0.37/0.43 0.34/0.47 0.86/0.60 0.84/0.65 0.95/0.43 0.61/0.38 0.83/0.25 0.75/1.01 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (Avg) 0.39/2.10 0.71/1.42 0.72/0.97 0.77/0.85 0.42/0.47 0.46/0.49 0.90/0.84 0.91/0.83 0.96/0.50 0.64/0.40 0.84/0.25 0.77/1.06 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (90%) 0.46/2.36 0.78/1.69 0.79/1.14 0.82/0.98 0.46/0.52 0.54/0.51 0.94/1.01 0.94/1.05 0.97/0.55 0.66/0.42 0.85/0.26 0.78/1.11 MIROC6 (10%) 0.39/1.73 0.72/1.34 0.81/0.85 0.68/1.02 0.44/0.35 0.34/0.49 0.81/0.69 0.89/0.56 0.96/0.33 0.58/0.42 0.85/0.26 0.78/1.04 MIROC6 (Avg) 0.45/1.97 0.78/1.54 0.85/0.97 0.74/1.19 0.48/0.39 0.44/0.51 0.90/0.86 0.91/0.69 0.97/0.41 0.60/0.44 0.86/0.28 0.79/1.10 MIROC6 (90%) 0.50/2.22 0.83/1.69 0.87/1.07 0.77/1.33 0.51/0.43 0.52/0.52 0.95/1.06 0.93/0.78 0.98/0.50 0.62/0.46 0.87/0.30 0.81/1.14 MIROC-ES2L (10%) 0.40/1.56 0.61/1.51 0.73/0.98 0.66/1.17 0.45/0.38 0.33/0.55 0.67/0.94 0.79/0.64 0.94/0.46 0.61/0.48 0.73/0.33 0.71/1.14 MIROC-ES2L (Avg) 0.45/1.78 0.66/1.65 0.78/1.10 0.70/1.40 0.48/0.41 0.41/0.56 0.78/1.14 0.85/0.72 0.95/0.52 0.63/0.49 0.74/0.34 0.72/1.20 MIROC-ES2L (90%) 0.48/1.98 0.70/1.68 0.80/1.15 0.73/1.55 0.50/0.43 0.47/0.57 0.85/1.29 0.87/0.80 0.95/0.56 0.66/0.50 0.75/0.34 0.73/1.24 EC-Earth3 (10%) 0.12/2.16 0.50/1.48 0.74/0.93 0.62/0.82 0.29/0.37 0.27/0.78 0.82/0.92 0.87/0.58 0.93/0.41 0.41/0.69 0.83/0.25 0.71/1.34 EC-Earth3 (Avg) 0.26/2.76 0.61/1.77 0.81/1.24 0.76/1.09 0.38/0.41 0.33/0.84 0.86/1.06 0.92/0.83 0.95/0.53 0.45/0.73 0.84/0.28 0.73/1.46 EC-Earth3 (90%) 0.32/3.38 0.68/1.88 0.84/1.40 0.80/1.19 0.41/0.43 0.36/0.89 0.87/1.17 0.94/1.08 0.95/0.55 0.48/0.77 0.84/0.28 0.75/1.57