Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Reference Dataset 1 vs. Ensemble Means ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV LP PDV NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ACCESS-ESM1-5 (10%) 0.52/0.58 0.50/1.15 0.71/0.41 0.58/0.46 0.21/0.82 0.62/0.09 0.86/0.58 0.87/0.43 0.97/0.37 0.59/0.15 0.87/0.22 0.78/0.60 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (Avg) 0.63/0.66 0.69/1.49 0.79/0.48 0.65/0.56 0.36/1.03 0.76/0.11 0.90/0.75 0.92/0.55 0.98/0.51 0.63/0.17 0.88/0.23 0.80/0.66 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (90%) 0.70/0.75 0.80/1.70 0.83/0.54 0.70/0.65 0.49/1.23 0.83/0.13 0.94/0.90 0.94/0.68 0.98/0.68 0.65/0.18 0.88/0.24 0.83/0.70 CanESM2 (10%) 0.45/0.84 0.65/1.45 0.80/0.44 0.64/0.55 0.11/0.84 0.74/0.10 0.85/0.71 0.83/0.70 0.96/0.35 0.65/0.12 0.85/0.23 0.78/0.68 CanESM2 (Avg) 0.51/0.94 0.71/1.72 0.83/0.51 0.72/0.66 0.30/1.09 0.78/0.11 0.89/0.91 0.88/0.89 0.97/0.45 0.68/0.12 0.85/0.23 0.79/0.74 CanESM2 (90%) 0.56/1.02 0.76/1.96 0.86/0.60 0.76/0.75 0.45/1.35 0.80/0.12 0.92/1.08 0.91/1.07 0.98/0.55 0.70/0.13 0.86/0.24 0.81/0.81 CanESM5 (10%) 0.53/0.68 0.66/1.27 0.70/0.45 0.63/0.37 0.10/0.85 0.70/0.09 0.87/0.65 0.83/0.68 0.96/0.33 0.61/0.13 0.82/0.24 0.76/0.60 CanESM5 (Avg) 0.58/0.75 0.73/1.48 0.75/0.50 0.69/0.42 0.30/1.00 0.79/0.10 0.91/0.76 0.87/0.88 0.97/0.38 0.65/0.13 0.83/0.24 0.79/0.65 CanESM5 (90%) 0.63/0.82 0.79/1.76 0.79/0.59 0.75/0.48 0.44/1.21 0.84/0.11 0.93/0.91 0.92/1.04 0.98/0.45 0.67/0.14 0.84/0.25 0.80/0.70 CESM1 (10%) 0.47/0.77 0.69/1.40 0.84/0.43 0.81/0.32 0.04/0.88 0.76/0.09 0.85/0.60 0.88/0.56 0.93/0.36 0.71/0.10 0.87/0.20 0.81/0.61 CESM1 (Avg) 0.54/0.87 0.75/1.61 0.89/0.54 0.87/0.42 0.30/1.10 0.84/0.10 0.90/0.80 0.91/0.70 0.95/0.44 0.73/0.12 0.87/0.21 0.83/0.67 CESM1 (90%) 0.59/0.96 0.81/1.80 0.92/0.63 0.90/0.54 0.46/1.29 0.88/0.11 0.93/0.95 0.93/0.83 0.97/0.49 0.75/0.13 0.88/0.21 0.84/0.74 CESM2 (10%) 0.65/0.61 0.74/1.19 0.88/0.49 0.84/0.47 0.09/0.80 0.81/0.09 0.87/0.60 0.91/0.52 0.93/0.37 0.78/0.12 0.91/0.22 0.85/0.61 CESM2 (Avg) 0.71/0.72 0.82/1.41 0.91/0.63 0.87/0.60 0.30/1.12 0.86/0.10 0.92/0.84 0.94/0.69 0.95/0.45 0.79/0.14 0.91/0.24 0.86/0.70 CESM2 (90%) 0.76/0.83 0.87/1.74 0.93/0.76 0.90/0.74 0.48/1.48 0.89/0.12 0.95/1.04 0.96/0.89 0.97/0.54 0.81/0.17 0.91/0.27 0.87/0.78 CSIRO-Mk360 (10%) 0.38/0.69 0.56/1.36 0.40/0.59 0.40/0.55 0.13/0.79 0.65/0.11 0.66/0.88 0.73/0.65 0.94/0.35 0.51/0.14 0.73/0.35 0.66/0.71 CSIRO-Mk360 (Avg) 0.49/0.79 0.67/1.55 0.50/0.73 0.48/0.62 0.28/1.04 0.72/0.12 0.78/1.09 0.80/0.79 0.96/0.41 0.54/0.16 0.74/0.37 0.69/0.77 CSIRO-Mk360 (90%) 0.59/0.91 0.74/1.74 0.58/0.83 0.56/0.71 0.39/1.27 0.78/0.13 0.86/1.28 0.86/0.94 0.97/0.48 0.56/0.17 0.76/0.38 0.71/0.82 E3SMv1 (10%) 0.61/0.56 0.58/1.15 0.80/0.39 0.65/0.42 -0.06/0.79 0.49/0.10 0.86/0.45 0.86/0.37 0.97/0.49 0.54/0.17 0.84/0.21 0.79/0.60 E3SMv1 (Avg) 0.67/0.66 0.75/1.41 0.87/0.46 0.74/0.54 0.24/1.01 0.68/0.13 0.92/0.67 0.92/0.57 0.98/0.67 0.62/0.17 0.86/0.22 0.82/0.67 E3SMv1 (90%) 0.72/0.72 0.83/1.66 0.90/0.58 0.78/0.68 0.42/1.29 0.79/0.15 0.95/0.80 0.96/0.68 0.98/0.84 0.64/0.18 0.86/0.23 0.84/0.71 E3SMv2 (10%) 0.59/0.58 0.64/1.04 0.89/0.31 0.75/0.39 0.08/0.85 0.58/0.09 0.84/0.62 0.87/0.48 0.97/0.49 0.55/0.17 0.88/0.18 0.82/0.61 E3SMv2 (Avg) 0.68/0.71 0.79/1.35 0.93/0.47 0.81/0.55 0.25/1.05 0.74/0.12 0.89/0.78 0.92/0.58 0.98/0.67 0.60/0.18 0.89/0.19 0.84/0.67 E3SMv2 (90%) 0.74/0.79 0.86/1.64 0.94/0.68 0.87/0.69 0.41/1.28 0.83/0.14 0.93/0.90 0.94/0.72 0.98/0.80 0.64/0.19 0.90/0.20 0.85/0.74 GFDL-CM3 (10%) 0.54/0.72 -0.48/1.43 0.84/0.52 0.70/0.63 0.09/0.75 0.67/0.10 0.87/0.58 0.86/0.55 0.97/0.48 0.40/0.14 0.79/0.25 0.73/0.72 GFDL-CM3 (Avg) 0.61/0.78 0.19/2.13 0.87/0.67 0.74/0.78 0.29/1.01 0.74/0.11 0.91/0.70 0.91/0.66 0.98/0.66 0.48/0.15 0.80/0.25 0.77/0.77 GFDL-CM3 (90%) 0.66/0.83 0.78/2.75 0.88/0.83 0.76/0.88 0.43/1.21 0.79/0.12 0.93/0.82 0.93/0.83 0.98/0.79 0.54/0.17 0.81/0.26 0.80/0.79 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (10%) 0.54/0.86 0.65/1.46 0.79/0.57 0.61/0.56 0.07/1.01 0.68/0.11 0.87/0.55 0.77/0.57 0.97/0.40 0.62/0.16 0.82/0.30 0.78/0.75 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (Avg) 0.62/0.95 0.76/1.77 0.82/0.86 0.73/0.77 0.23/1.26 0.75/0.12 0.92/0.71 0.88/0.80 0.98/0.60 0.65/0.18 0.83/0.34 0.80/0.85 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (90%) 0.65/1.05 0.81/1.98 0.86/1.07 0.77/1.11 0.38/1.60 0.79/0.13 0.94/0.85 0.93/1.08 0.98/0.82 0.68/0.20 0.84/0.37 0.82/0.96 GFDL-SPEAR (10%) 0.66/0.53 0.73/1.08 0.85/0.33 0.78/0.30 0.08/0.85 0.62/0.08 0.85/0.54 0.86/0.45 0.97/0.29 0.69/0.11 0.86/0.20 0.81/0.54 GFDL-SPEAR (Avg) 0.72/0.60 0.80/1.26 0.89/0.40 0.86/0.37 0.23/1.15 0.78/0.10 0.91/0.71 0.92/0.55 0.98/0.38 0.73/0.11 0.87/0.21 0.84/0.59 GFDL-SPEAR (90%) 0.76/0.67 0.85/1.41 0.91/0.48 0.89/0.44 0.37/1.35 0.84/0.12 0.94/0.87 0.94/0.66 0.98/0.49 0.75/0.12 0.88/0.22 0.86/0.63 IPSL-CM6A (10%) 0.59/0.63 0.59/1.41 0.77/0.43 0.61/0.48 0.20/0.78 0.77/0.09 0.90/0.51 0.77/0.77 0.97/0.42 0.68/0.13 0.81/0.26 0.79/0.63 IPSL-CM6A (Avg) 0.62/0.70 0.67/1.58 0.81/0.48 0.69/0.53 0.33/0.90 0.80/0.10 0.93/0.63 0.82/0.91 0.97/0.57 0.70/0.13 0.82/0.26 0.80/0.66 IPSL-CM6A (90%) 0.62/0.71 0.71/1.68 0.84/0.51 0.72/0.58 0.38/0.95 0.83/0.10 0.95/0.69 0.85/1.01 0.98/0.67 0.71/0.14 0.82/0.27 0.80/0.67 MPI-GE (10%) 0.60/0.58 0.66/1.18 0.59/0.54 0.68/0.33 0.08/0.86 0.64/0.11 0.90/0.50 0.83/0.56 0.96/0.38 0.57/0.17 0.76/0.24 0.77/0.64 MPI-GE (Avg) 0.67/0.67 0.76/1.38 0.69/0.67 0.76/0.41 0.25/1.10 0.72/0.12 0.93/0.66 0.89/0.74 0.97/0.50 0.62/0.18 0.79/0.26 0.79/0.69 MPI-GE (90%) 0.74/0.76 0.83/1.57 0.76/0.82 0.81/0.48 0.38/1.42 0.79/0.14 0.95/0.79 0.92/0.95 0.98/0.64 0.66/0.19 0.82/0.28 0.81/0.74 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (10%) 0.64/0.55 0.75/1.00 0.66/0.44 0.76/0.33 0.11/0.82 0.64/0.11 0.88/0.61 0.85/0.52 0.97/0.40 0.60/0.16 0.81/0.24 0.79/0.60 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (Avg) 0.71/0.64 0.83/1.20 0.75/0.58 0.81/0.41 0.27/1.01 0.73/0.12 0.92/0.73 0.90/0.73 0.98/0.54 0.65/0.17 0.83/0.25 0.82/0.66 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (90%) 0.75/0.73 0.88/1.45 0.80/0.69 0.85/0.46 0.39/1.13 0.78/0.14 0.93/0.85 0.94/0.93 0.98/0.70 0.68/0.18 0.84/0.26 0.84/0.71 MIROC6 (10%) 0.62/0.76 0.81/1.18 0.75/0.67 0.71/0.57 0.12/0.87 0.80/0.12 0.83/0.53 0.82/0.62 0.95/0.27 0.69/0.14 0.90/0.20 0.82/0.67 MIROC6 (Avg) 0.68/0.86 0.86/1.41 0.83/0.82 0.77/0.73 0.27/1.07 0.84/0.15 0.92/0.72 0.89/0.72 0.97/0.38 0.71/0.17 0.90/0.22 0.84/0.77 MIROC6 (90%) 0.72/1.01 0.89/1.62 0.86/0.91 0.81/0.90 0.38/1.30 0.86/0.17 0.96/0.91 0.91/0.82 0.98/0.48 0.72/0.19 0.91/0.25 0.85/0.85 MIROC-ES2L (10%) 0.62/0.66 0.71/1.25 0.80/0.62 0.71/0.56 0.08/0.92 0.70/0.13 0.74/0.79 0.64/0.71 0.90/0.49 0.65/0.16 0.81/0.24 0.73/0.74 MIROC-ES2L (Avg) 0.68/0.76 0.79/1.39 0.83/0.76 0.80/0.68 0.30/1.13 0.75/0.15 0.82/0.96 0.79/0.80 0.92/0.58 0.68/0.18 0.82/0.25 0.77/0.79 MIROC-ES2L (90%) 0.70/0.81 0.84/1.53 0.84/0.85 0.84/0.76 0.42/1.26 0.78/0.16 0.87/1.09 0.84/0.92 0.93/0.62 0.69/0.19 0.84/0.26 0.79/0.88 EC-Earth3 (10%) 0.46/0.61 0.73/1.00 0.79/0.31 0.74/0.31 0.28/0.72 0.39/0.10 0.85/0.53 0.89/0.43 0.96/0.24 0.44/0.15 0.85/0.22 0.79/0.54 EC-Earth3 (Avg) 0.54/0.71 0.81/1.21 0.86/0.42 0.81/0.36 0.41/0.80 0.67/0.13 0.93/0.65 0.92/0.62 0.98/0.31 0.50/0.19 0.86/0.23 0.82/0.59 EC-Earth3 (90%) 0.64/0.76 0.83/1.31 0.88/0.50 0.84/0.39 0.48/0.88 0.78/0.13 0.95/0.77 0.93/0.76 0.99/0.39 0.55/0.20 0.86/0.24 0.83/0.61