Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Reference Dataset 1 vs. Ensemble Means ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV LP PDV NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ACCESS-ESM1-5 (10%) 0.51/0.67 0.57/1.31 0.85/0.34 0.70/0.50 0.18/0.83 0.68/0.09 0.87/0.61 0.89/0.46 0.93/0.36 0.57/0.14 0.89/0.27 0.79/0.62 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (Avg) 0.58/0.75 0.68/1.58 0.88/0.45 0.74/0.61 0.33/1.03 0.79/0.10 0.91/0.71 0.93/0.56 0.95/0.47 0.61/0.16 0.89/0.29 0.81/0.68 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (90%) 0.63/0.82 0.76/1.78 0.91/0.58 0.78/0.69 0.45/1.22 0.85/0.12 0.94/0.80 0.95/0.67 0.97/0.58 0.65/0.18 0.90/0.31 0.83/0.72 CanESM2 (10%) 0.38/0.82 0.54/1.65 0.78/0.39 0.62/0.46 0.12/0.83 0.73/0.10 0.82/0.72 0.88/0.68 0.93/0.45 0.56/0.12 0.84/0.23 0.75/0.67 CanESM2 (Avg) 0.44/0.92 0.62/1.93 0.82/0.44 0.69/0.55 0.27/1.02 0.78/0.11 0.88/0.90 0.91/0.86 0.95/0.52 0.60/0.13 0.84/0.23 0.77/0.72 CanESM2 (90%) 0.51/1.00 0.68/2.16 0.84/0.50 0.75/0.63 0.43/1.20 0.80/0.12 0.91/1.07 0.93/1.04 0.96/0.59 0.63/0.14 0.85/0.24 0.78/0.77 CanESM5 (10%) 0.50/0.72 0.61/1.39 0.74/0.39 0.74/0.33 0.14/0.82 0.76/0.09 0.84/0.61 0.87/0.58 0.90/0.47 0.55/0.13 0.84/0.22 0.76/0.61 CanESM5 (Avg) 0.54/0.81 0.68/1.66 0.79/0.46 0.78/0.38 0.26/0.99 0.80/0.10 0.90/0.84 0.91/0.79 0.93/0.57 0.59/0.13 0.85/0.23 0.78/0.66 CanESM5 (90%) 0.59/0.88 0.75/1.84 0.84/0.52 0.82/0.41 0.39/1.23 0.83/0.11 0.95/1.09 0.93/1.00 0.95/0.70 0.63/0.14 0.85/0.24 0.80/0.72 CESM1 (10%) 0.44/0.82 0.63/1.60 0.87/0.41 0.81/0.34 0.14/0.81 0.72/0.09 0.80/0.84 0.87/0.73 0.88/0.53 0.70/0.11 0.86/0.20 0.79/0.66 CESM1 (Avg) 0.50/0.94 0.70/1.90 0.90/0.53 0.86/0.45 0.33/1.00 0.83/0.11 0.86/1.00 0.90/0.93 0.92/0.60 0.72/0.13 0.87/0.22 0.81/0.73 CESM1 (90%) 0.55/1.04 0.75/2.25 0.92/0.65 0.90/0.56 0.48/1.18 0.87/0.13 0.90/1.16 0.92/1.09 0.93/0.67 0.73/0.15 0.87/0.24 0.82/0.85 CESM2 (10%) 0.62/0.68 0.66/1.48 0.90/0.48 0.77/0.57 0.11/0.72 0.75/0.08 0.83/0.75 0.91/0.58 0.88/0.46 0.77/0.11 0.89/0.26 0.82/0.66 CESM2 (Avg) 0.67/0.75 0.74/1.70 0.92/0.62 0.83/0.67 0.37/0.93 0.84/0.10 0.89/0.95 0.94/0.80 0.92/0.56 0.79/0.13 0.89/0.29 0.84/0.72 CESM2 (90%) 0.71/0.83 0.80/1.98 0.93/0.74 0.87/0.78 0.54/1.15 0.89/0.12 0.93/1.14 0.96/1.01 0.95/0.68 0.80/0.14 0.90/0.31 0.85/0.78 CSIRO-Mk360 (10%) 0.43/0.66 0.43/1.44 0.53/0.56 0.53/0.49 0.15/0.90 0.56/0.11 0.76/0.81 0.77/0.54 0.91/0.43 0.47/0.16 0.79/0.36 0.67/0.70 CSIRO-Mk360 (Avg) 0.54/0.77 0.60/1.67 0.62/0.69 0.59/0.61 0.23/1.05 0.70/0.12 0.83/0.98 0.86/0.64 0.94/0.51 0.51/0.18 0.80/0.39 0.71/0.77 CSIRO-Mk360 (90%) 0.60/0.89 0.70/1.91 0.67/0.87 0.63/0.72 0.30/1.32 0.76/0.14 0.88/1.11 0.90/0.73 0.96/0.59 0.55/0.19 0.81/0.41 0.73/0.84 E3SMv1 (10%) 0.66/0.60 0.73/1.06 0.81/0.46 0.71/0.45 0.01/0.76 0.71/0.08 0.86/0.57 0.89/0.43 0.96/0.34 0.59/0.16 0.87/0.20 0.80/0.60 E3SMv1 (Avg) 0.70/0.69 0.82/1.33 0.87/0.71 0.81/0.57 0.31/0.92 0.82/0.10 0.91/0.72 0.93/0.62 0.98/0.56 0.63/0.19 0.88/0.21 0.84/0.68 E3SMv1 (90%) 0.72/0.74 0.87/1.69 0.90/1.03 0.85/0.68 0.45/1.07 0.85/0.12 0.94/0.87 0.95/0.71 0.98/0.76 0.65/0.21 0.88/0.23 0.85/0.77 E3SMv2 (10%) 0.64/0.56 0.67/1.16 0.92/0.41 0.77/0.41 0.16/0.77 0.78/0.08 0.81/0.73 0.88/0.53 0.97/0.50 0.61/0.15 0.89/0.18 0.83/0.60 E3SMv2 (Avg) 0.72/0.66 0.80/1.38 0.93/0.52 0.83/0.55 0.27/0.93 0.83/0.10 0.86/0.88 0.92/0.60 0.98/0.59 0.64/0.16 0.90/0.19 0.85/0.65 E3SMv2 (90%) 0.76/0.75 0.86/1.54 0.94/0.61 0.87/0.67 0.43/1.07 0.88/0.11 0.90/1.03 0.94/0.67 0.99/0.71 0.66/0.17 0.90/0.20 0.86/0.68 GFDL-CM3 (10%) 0.54/0.68 -0.62/1.29 0.82/0.47 0.72/0.58 0.05/0.79 0.68/0.10 0.36/0.59 0.88/0.61 0.94/0.37 0.49/0.12 0.81/0.24 0.71/0.71 GFDL-CM3 (Avg) 0.60/0.80 0.14/2.22 0.86/0.70 0.75/0.81 0.30/1.05 0.75/0.11 0.85/1.01 0.92/0.78 0.96/0.46 0.54/0.13 0.82/0.25 0.76/0.79 GFDL-CM3 (90%) 0.65/0.92 0.75/2.83 0.88/0.95 0.79/1.00 0.45/1.36 0.78/0.12 0.90/1.16 0.94/0.92 0.97/0.56 0.58/0.14 0.82/0.27 0.79/0.85 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (10%) 0.49/0.79 0.63/1.36 0.80/0.43 0.69/0.38 0.11/0.87 0.66/0.10 0.87/0.58 0.90/0.54 0.95/0.35 0.59/0.13 0.81/0.31 0.78/0.64 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (Avg) 0.60/0.88 0.76/1.63 0.85/0.58 0.75/0.56 0.25/1.12 0.73/0.12 0.91/0.77 0.93/0.74 0.97/0.40 0.63/0.14 0.82/0.33 0.80/0.73 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (90%) 0.66/0.99 0.82/1.91 0.87/0.78 0.79/0.73 0.37/1.40 0.79/0.13 0.94/0.96 0.95/0.96 0.98/0.46 0.67/0.15 0.83/0.36 0.82/0.80 GFDL-SPEAR (10%) 0.65/0.60 0.81/0.92 0.89/0.39 0.79/0.41 0.13/0.85 0.66/0.08 0.82/0.59 0.84/0.49 0.96/0.26 0.71/0.10 0.89/0.20 0.83/0.58 GFDL-SPEAR (Avg) 0.70/0.69 0.87/1.08 0.90/0.56 0.84/0.53 0.30/1.09 0.79/0.10 0.90/0.76 0.92/0.61 0.98/0.33 0.74/0.11 0.89/0.21 0.85/0.63 GFDL-SPEAR (90%) 0.72/0.75 0.89/1.24 0.92/0.73 0.87/0.64 0.46/1.43 0.84/0.11 0.95/0.90 0.95/0.74 0.98/0.40 0.76/0.12 0.90/0.22 0.86/0.67 IPSL-CM6A (10%) 0.57/0.60 0.60/1.20 0.78/0.44 0.61/0.37 0.22/0.73 0.68/0.10 0.85/0.91 0.86/0.68 0.98/0.24 0.58/0.13 0.83/0.23 0.79/0.62 IPSL-CM6A (Avg) 0.66/0.66 0.69/1.58 0.82/0.50 0.73/0.50 0.35/0.85 0.76/0.11 0.88/0.98 0.88/0.86 0.98/0.34 0.60/0.14 0.83/0.23 0.80/0.65 IPSL-CM6A (90%) 0.70/0.69 0.76/1.79 0.84/0.55 0.78/0.57 0.42/0.85 0.81/0.12 0.89/0.97 0.89/0.96 0.99/0.39 0.62/0.14 0.84/0.24 0.82/0.67 MPI-GE (10%) 0.55/0.59 0.60/1.21 0.56/0.55 0.65/0.35 0.09/0.87 0.69/0.10 0.86/0.62 0.85/0.54 0.95/0.34 0.55/0.15 0.77/0.24 0.75/0.64 MPI-GE (Avg) 0.64/0.69 0.73/1.47 0.67/0.67 0.73/0.44 0.23/1.10 0.75/0.12 0.91/0.81 0.90/0.81 0.96/0.41 0.60/0.16 0.80/0.26 0.78/0.70 MPI-GE (90%) 0.70/0.79 0.82/1.73 0.76/0.83 0.79/0.54 0.35/1.37 0.80/0.13 0.94/0.99 0.94/1.05 0.97/0.48 0.63/0.18 0.83/0.27 0.80/0.77 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (10%) 0.60/0.57 0.74/0.98 0.65/0.50 0.71/0.33 0.05/0.80 0.71/0.10 0.88/0.58 0.89/0.61 0.94/0.36 0.62/0.14 0.84/0.23 0.79/0.60 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (Avg) 0.69/0.67 0.83/1.21 0.74/0.61 0.81/0.42 0.20/1.09 0.77/0.11 0.91/0.79 0.93/0.76 0.96/0.45 0.65/0.16 0.85/0.24 0.81/0.67 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (90%) 0.74/0.78 0.87/1.42 0.79/0.68 0.86/0.55 0.32/1.38 0.82/0.12 0.95/0.92 0.95/0.93 0.97/0.50 0.69/0.17 0.86/0.25 0.83/0.72 MIROC6 (10%) 0.59/0.81 0.79/1.18 0.80/0.77 0.76/0.62 0.17/0.77 0.80/0.13 0.80/0.64 0.86/0.62 0.95/0.26 0.67/0.16 0.87/0.25 0.81/0.72 MIROC6 (Avg) 0.65/0.90 0.84/1.37 0.83/0.85 0.79/0.72 0.30/0.98 0.83/0.15 0.89/0.82 0.90/0.74 0.97/0.35 0.69/0.18 0.88/0.27 0.83/0.78 MIROC6 (90%) 0.70/0.98 0.87/1.55 0.85/0.97 0.81/0.82 0.44/1.20 0.86/0.18 0.94/1.05 0.92/0.86 0.98/0.45 0.70/0.20 0.88/0.29 0.85/0.84 MIROC-ES2L (10%) 0.60/0.72 0.70/1.33 0.71/0.86 0.69/0.68 0.13/0.88 0.66/0.14 0.62/0.91 0.75/0.63 0.92/0.44 0.66/0.18 0.75/0.30 0.72/0.79 MIROC-ES2L (Avg) 0.64/0.83 0.75/1.46 0.76/0.97 0.74/0.85 0.25/1.02 0.72/0.19 0.75/1.11 0.82/0.76 0.94/0.52 0.67/0.21 0.76/0.31 0.74/0.88 MIROC-ES2L (90%) 0.66/0.86 0.78/1.63 0.79/1.07 0.78/1.03 0.35/1.13 0.74/0.21 0.84/1.28 0.84/0.83 0.94/0.58 0.68/0.23 0.76/0.32 0.76/0.92 EC-Earth3 (10%) 0.46/0.71 0.62/1.37 0.80/0.54 0.70/0.48 0.32/0.71 0.76/0.09 0.83/0.75 0.91/0.48 0.96/0.34 0.51/0.16 0.85/0.22 0.79/0.61 EC-Earth3 (Avg) 0.52/0.85 0.72/1.57 0.82/0.77 0.77/0.59 0.39/0.79 0.82/0.10 0.87/0.98 0.94/0.65 0.97/0.38 0.55/0.19 0.86/0.24 0.80/0.71 EC-Earth3 (90%) 0.56/0.94 0.76/1.64 0.84/0.91 0.80/0.73 0.41/0.84 0.85/0.11 0.89/1.03 0.94/0.79 0.97/0.43 0.57/0.20 0.86/0.26 0.82/0.74