Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Reference Dataset 1 vs. Ensemble Means ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV LP PDV NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- E3SMv1 (10%) 0.27/2.03 0.51/1.25 0.84/1.00 0.75/0.92 0.14/0.36 0.28/0.75 0.86/0.58 0.88/0.51 0.95/0.41 0.47/0.66 0.86/0.22 0.75/1.25 E3SMv1 (Avg) 0.35/2.94 0.75/1.52 0.87/1.22 0.81/1.15 0.23/0.40 0.33/0.87 0.91/0.75 0.93/0.67 0.97/0.56 0.53/0.76 0.87/0.23 0.78/1.45 E3SMv1 (90%) 0.46/3.46 0.81/1.91 0.90/1.38 0.85/1.32 0.36/0.43 0.43/0.91 0.94/0.93 0.95/0.77 0.98/0.63 0.56/0.79 0.88/0.25 0.80/1.56 E3SMv2 (10%) 0.28/1.92 0.68/1.17 0.92/0.47 0.84/0.62 0.13/0.38 0.25/0.62 0.82/0.72 0.89/0.51 0.96/0.41 0.49/0.52 0.89/0.19 0.78/1.02 E3SMv2 (Avg) 0.37/2.35 0.77/1.41 0.94/0.64 0.88/0.76 0.21/0.41 0.33/0.64 0.86/0.92 0.92/0.59 0.97/0.52 0.53/0.54 0.90/0.20 0.80/1.11 E3SMv2 (90%) 0.45/2.81 0.81/1.61 0.95/0.75 0.91/0.92 0.29/0.43 0.43/0.66 0.90/1.07 0.94/0.72 0.98/0.62 0.56/0.55 0.90/0.21 0.81/1.17 GFDL-CM3 (10%) 0.20/2.27 -0.39/1.81 0.80/0.72 0.72/0.73 0.41/0.39 0.34/0.73 0.45/0.69 0.89/0.72 0.93/0.52 0.39/0.59 0.79/0.27 0.67/1.29 GFDL-CM3 (Avg) 0.27/2.67 0.03/2.54 0.86/0.86 0.78/1.03 0.47/0.43 0.40/0.75 0.85/1.04 0.91/0.86 0.95/0.65 0.42/0.62 0.80/0.28 0.71/1.37 GFDL-CM3 (90%) 0.33/2.95 0.61/3.07 0.88/0.95 0.82/1.27 0.51/0.46 0.44/0.78 0.90/1.19 0.93/1.05 0.96/0.70 0.45/0.64 0.81/0.29 0.74/1.45 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (10%) 0.40/1.17 0.62/1.32 0.80/0.48 0.72/0.46 0.37/0.47 0.29/0.35 0.87/0.71 0.85/0.58 0.94/0.43 0.55/0.27 0.80/0.32 0.75/0.78 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (Avg) 0.49/1.41 0.72/1.51 0.85/0.62 0.78/0.65 0.43/0.53 0.38/0.37 0.90/0.85 0.91/0.81 0.95/0.49 0.59/0.29 0.81/0.34 0.77/0.86 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (90%) 0.54/1.55 0.79/1.68 0.89/0.80 0.83/0.79 0.49/0.57 0.47/0.38 0.92/1.03 0.93/1.01 0.97/0.57 0.61/0.31 0.82/0.36 0.79/0.92 GFDL-SPEAR (10%) 0.38/1.75 0.67/1.22 0.87/0.59 0.83/0.60 0.22/0.55 0.46/0.58 0.81/0.63 0.84/0.45 0.96/0.37 0.64/0.45 0.88/0.21 0.80/1.00 GFDL-SPEAR (Avg) 0.44/2.19 0.76/1.47 0.90/0.72 0.87/0.80 0.28/0.63 0.54/0.59 0.90/0.81 0.92/0.61 0.97/0.43 0.67/0.47 0.89/0.22 0.81/1.09 GFDL-SPEAR (90%) 0.50/2.60 0.83/1.71 0.91/0.84 0.90/0.95 0.32/0.68 0.61/0.61 0.94/1.03 0.96/0.77 0.98/0.49 0.69/0.49 0.89/0.23 0.83/1.21 IPSL-CM6A (10%) 0.22/3.52 0.45/1.56 0.75/1.28 0.63/1.06 0.37/0.39 0.38/0.89 0.85/1.02 0.82/0.89 0.96/0.35 0.38/0.76 0.81/0.25 0.71/1.58 IPSL-CM6A (Avg) 0.26/3.85 0.53/1.96 0.79/1.51 0.73/1.27 0.42/0.42 0.43/0.91 0.88/1.10 0.87/0.99 0.97/0.49 0.41/0.79 0.82/0.26 0.73/1.69 IPSL-CM6A (90%) 0.28/4.10 0.57/2.10 0.81/1.65 0.77/1.46 0.45/0.44 0.47/0.92 0.90/1.15 0.87/1.05 0.98/0.56 0.44/0.80 0.82/0.26 0.74/1.72