Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Reference Dataset 1 vs. Ensemble Means ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV LP PDV NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- E3SMv1 (10%) 0.66/0.60 0.73/1.06 0.81/0.46 0.71/0.45 0.01/0.76 0.71/0.08 0.86/0.57 0.89/0.43 0.96/0.34 0.59/0.16 0.87/0.20 0.80/0.60 E3SMv1 (Avg) 0.70/0.69 0.82/1.33 0.87/0.71 0.81/0.57 0.31/0.92 0.82/0.10 0.91/0.72 0.93/0.62 0.98/0.56 0.63/0.19 0.88/0.21 0.84/0.68 E3SMv1 (90%) 0.72/0.74 0.87/1.69 0.90/1.03 0.85/0.68 0.45/1.07 0.85/0.12 0.94/0.87 0.95/0.71 0.98/0.76 0.65/0.21 0.88/0.23 0.85/0.77 E3SMv2 (10%) 0.64/0.56 0.67/1.16 0.92/0.41 0.77/0.41 0.16/0.77 0.78/0.08 0.81/0.73 0.88/0.53 0.97/0.50 0.61/0.15 0.89/0.18 0.83/0.60 E3SMv2 (Avg) 0.72/0.66 0.80/1.38 0.93/0.52 0.83/0.55 0.27/0.93 0.83/0.10 0.86/0.88 0.92/0.60 0.98/0.59 0.64/0.16 0.90/0.19 0.85/0.65 E3SMv2 (90%) 0.76/0.75 0.86/1.54 0.94/0.61 0.87/0.67 0.43/1.07 0.88/0.11 0.90/1.03 0.94/0.67 0.99/0.71 0.66/0.17 0.90/0.20 0.86/0.68 GFDL-CM3 (10%) 0.54/0.68 -0.62/1.29 0.82/0.47 0.72/0.58 0.05/0.79 0.68/0.10 0.36/0.59 0.88/0.61 0.94/0.37 0.49/0.12 0.81/0.24 0.71/0.71 GFDL-CM3 (Avg) 0.60/0.80 0.14/2.22 0.86/0.70 0.75/0.81 0.30/1.05 0.75/0.11 0.85/1.01 0.92/0.78 0.96/0.46 0.54/0.13 0.82/0.25 0.76/0.79 GFDL-CM3 (90%) 0.65/0.92 0.75/2.83 0.88/0.95 0.79/1.00 0.45/1.36 0.78/0.12 0.90/1.16 0.94/0.92 0.97/0.56 0.58/0.14 0.82/0.27 0.79/0.85 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (10%) 0.49/0.79 0.63/1.36 0.80/0.43 0.69/0.38 0.11/0.87 0.66/0.10 0.87/0.58 0.90/0.54 0.95/0.35 0.59/0.13 0.81/0.31 0.78/0.64 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (Avg) 0.60/0.88 0.76/1.63 0.85/0.58 0.75/0.56 0.25/1.12 0.73/0.12 0.91/0.77 0.93/0.74 0.97/0.40 0.63/0.14 0.82/0.33 0.80/0.73 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (90%) 0.66/0.99 0.82/1.91 0.87/0.78 0.79/0.73 0.37/1.40 0.79/0.13 0.94/0.96 0.95/0.96 0.98/0.46 0.67/0.15 0.83/0.36 0.82/0.80 GFDL-SPEAR (10%) 0.65/0.60 0.81/0.92 0.89/0.39 0.79/0.41 0.13/0.85 0.66/0.08 0.82/0.59 0.84/0.49 0.96/0.26 0.71/0.10 0.89/0.20 0.83/0.58 GFDL-SPEAR (Avg) 0.70/0.69 0.87/1.08 0.90/0.56 0.84/0.53 0.30/1.09 0.79/0.10 0.90/0.76 0.92/0.61 0.98/0.33 0.74/0.11 0.89/0.21 0.85/0.63 GFDL-SPEAR (90%) 0.72/0.75 0.89/1.24 0.92/0.73 0.87/0.64 0.46/1.43 0.84/0.11 0.95/0.90 0.95/0.74 0.98/0.40 0.76/0.12 0.90/0.22 0.86/0.67 IPSL-CM6A (10%) 0.57/0.60 0.60/1.20 0.78/0.44 0.61/0.37 0.22/0.73 0.68/0.10 0.85/0.91 0.86/0.68 0.98/0.24 0.58/0.13 0.83/0.23 0.79/0.62 IPSL-CM6A (Avg) 0.66/0.66 0.69/1.58 0.82/0.50 0.73/0.50 0.35/0.85 0.76/0.11 0.88/0.98 0.88/0.86 0.98/0.34 0.60/0.14 0.83/0.23 0.80/0.65 IPSL-CM6A (90%) 0.70/0.69 0.76/1.79 0.84/0.55 0.78/0.57 0.42/0.85 0.81/0.12 0.89/0.97 0.89/0.96 0.99/0.39 0.62/0.14 0.84/0.24 0.82/0.67