Pattern Correlations/RMS Differences Observations vs. Ensemble Means ENSO TAS ENSO PSL El Nino La Nina AMV' LP PDV' NAO PNA SAM SST sigma PR sigma Mean (DJF+1) (DJF+1) Hov Hov (Monthly) (Monthly) (JFM) (DJF) (DJF) (Ann) (Ann) Score --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- ACCESS-ESM1-5 (10%) 0.55/0.59 0.56/1.26 0.72/0.40 0.60/0.46 0.12/0.91 0.70/0.10 0.84/0.68 0.86/0.43 0.97/0.40 0.62/0.14 0.83/0.17 0.76/0.58 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (Avg) 0.62/0.67 0.70/1.47 0.79/0.47 0.66/0.54 0.31/1.23 0.78/0.11 0.89/0.85 0.91/0.58 0.97/0.51 0.68/0.16 0.83/0.17 0.79/0.65 ACCESS-ESM1-5 (90%) 0.68/0.75 0.78/1.68 0.82/0.54 0.71/0.65 0.45/1.53 0.83/0.12 0.93/0.97 0.94/0.74 0.98/0.62 0.70/0.17 0.84/0.18 0.81/0.70 CanESM2 (10%) 0.46/0.84 0.63/1.46 0.81/0.44 0.67/0.53 0.07/0.87 0.79/0.10 0.81/0.79 0.82/0.75 0.95/0.41 0.68/0.12 0.67/0.24 0.76/0.68 CanESM2 (Avg) 0.52/0.95 0.70/1.75 0.83/0.52 0.73/0.64 0.29/1.22 0.82/0.10 0.86/0.99 0.86/0.94 0.96/0.50 0.70/0.13 0.68/0.24 0.77/0.75 CanESM2 (90%) 0.57/1.09 0.76/2.06 0.85/0.59 0.78/0.74 0.46/1.57 0.83/0.11 0.90/1.18 0.90/1.13 0.97/0.59 0.72/0.13 0.70/0.24 0.79/0.80 CanESM5 (10%) 0.47/0.72 0.62/1.22 0.70/0.42 0.61/0.37 0.04/0.92 0.74/0.10 0.86/0.68 0.78/0.75 0.95/0.42 0.63/0.13 0.75/0.21 0.75/0.62 CanESM5 (Avg) 0.55/0.80 0.72/1.49 0.75/0.47 0.71/0.42 0.29/1.21 0.79/0.11 0.90/0.82 0.84/0.99 0.96/0.48 0.66/0.15 0.76/0.21 0.77/0.68 CanESM5 (90%) 0.63/0.94 0.80/1.69 0.78/0.51 0.78/0.50 0.46/1.54 0.83/0.12 0.93/0.95 0.88/1.19 0.97/0.58 0.71/0.16 0.77/0.22 0.79/0.74 CESM1 (10%) 0.47/0.75 0.67/1.39 0.87/0.41 0.84/0.35 0.05/0.94 0.82/0.09 0.84/0.71 0.86/0.56 0.92/0.46 0.72/0.10 0.76/0.21 0.80/0.62 CESM1 (Avg) 0.55/0.87 0.75/1.63 0.90/0.55 0.87/0.44 0.29/1.21 0.86/0.10 0.87/0.90 0.90/0.73 0.94/0.55 0.74/0.12 0.77/0.21 0.81/0.68 CESM1 (90%) 0.61/0.97 0.81/1.97 0.92/0.69 0.90/0.54 0.44/1.48 0.88/0.11 0.92/1.03 0.93/0.90 0.96/0.63 0.75/0.13 0.78/0.21 0.83/0.74 CESM2 (10%) 0.65/0.63 0.72/1.23 0.89/0.48 0.85/0.48 0.11/0.94 0.85/0.09 0.85/0.66 0.88/0.54 0.92/0.47 0.77/0.12 0.83/0.19 0.83/0.62 CESM2 (Avg) 0.71/0.73 0.81/1.46 0.91/0.65 0.88/0.60 0.32/1.27 0.88/0.10 0.90/0.89 0.93/0.74 0.94/0.55 0.79/0.14 0.84/0.20 0.85/0.71 CESM2 (90%) 0.75/0.83 0.87/1.72 0.93/0.82 0.90/0.74 0.48/1.79 0.89/0.12 0.94/1.10 0.96/0.95 0.96/0.64 0.81/0.17 0.85/0.21 0.86/0.80 CSIRO-Mk360 (10%) 0.37/0.72 0.53/1.35 0.38/0.57 0.41/0.55 0.20/0.80 0.61/0.12 0.67/0.95 0.73/0.60 0.94/0.40 0.51/0.15 0.76/0.21 0.66/0.69 CSIRO-Mk360 (Avg) 0.48/0.83 0.66/1.57 0.49/0.72 0.50/0.63 0.38/1.12 0.69/0.14 0.79/1.13 0.82/0.77 0.96/0.47 0.55/0.16 0.77/0.22 0.70/0.76 CSIRO-Mk360 (90%) 0.56/0.92 0.74/1.82 0.60/0.85 0.58/0.77 0.51/1.47 0.75/0.15 0.86/1.32 0.88/0.93 0.97/0.53 0.57/0.18 0.78/0.23 0.72/0.82 GFDL-CM3 (10%) 0.48/0.71 -0.59/1.41 0.82/0.56 0.73/0.62 0.35/0.77 0.73/0.10 0.85/0.59 0.85/0.55 0.97/0.56 0.47/0.14 0.74/0.21 0.74/0.68 GFDL-CM3 (Avg) 0.58/0.86 0.22/2.10 0.85/0.74 0.75/0.75 0.54/0.93 0.78/0.11 0.91/0.75 0.90/0.70 0.98/0.77 0.56/0.16 0.75/0.22 0.78/0.76 GFDL-CM3 (90%) 0.66/0.98 0.82/2.66 0.87/1.01 0.78/0.88 0.64/1.10 0.81/0.12 0.93/0.86 0.92/0.82 0.98/0.93 0.63/0.17 0.76/0.22 0.81/0.80 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (10%) 0.59/0.83 0.72/1.48 0.79/0.63 0.63/0.53 0.14/0.93 0.74/0.11 0.85/0.60 0.76/0.59 0.96/0.45 0.65/0.15 0.74/0.24 0.77/0.74 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (Avg) 0.64/0.96 0.77/1.75 0.83/0.92 0.74/0.79 0.39/1.22 0.78/0.12 0.90/0.80 0.86/0.86 0.97/0.63 0.67/0.17 0.76/0.26 0.80/0.83 GFDL-ESM2M_v2 (90%) 0.67/1.07 0.82/2.03 0.86/1.21 0.80/1.14 0.54/1.61 0.81/0.13 0.93/0.93 0.92/1.25 0.97/0.79 0.68/0.19 0.77/0.28 0.81/0.92 GFDL-SPEAR (10%) 0.62/0.56 0.67/1.01 0.86/0.31 0.84/0.30 0.15/0.89 0.66/0.09 0.84/0.59 0.89/0.41 0.97/0.31 0.72/0.11 0.86/0.15 0.82/0.52 GFDL-SPEAR (Avg) 0.70/0.63 0.78/1.30 0.89/0.42 0.88/0.35 0.35/1.18 0.79/0.11 0.91/0.75 0.93/0.50 0.98/0.39 0.75/0.12 0.87/0.16 0.85/0.57 GFDL-SPEAR (90%) 0.75/0.68 0.87/1.54 0.90/0.59 0.90/0.41 0.50/1.44 0.84/0.13 0.94/0.91 0.96/0.58 0.98/0.47 0.77/0.13 0.87/0.16 0.87/0.64 GISS-E2-G (10%) 0.49/0.88 0.64/1.69 0.72/0.72 0.54/0.71 0.11/0.93 0.73/0.10 0.86/0.73 0.70/0.90 0.93/0.42 0.71/0.17 0.73/0.22 0.73/0.79 GISS-E2-G (Avg) 0.52/1.08 0.70/1.86 0.77/0.80 0.65/0.80 0.33/1.51 0.78/0.14 0.89/0.87 0.79/1.20 0.96/0.50 0.72/0.18 0.75/0.23 0.76/0.90 GISS-E2-G (90%) 0.55/1.21 0.74/1.98 0.80/0.85 0.70/0.93 0.51/1.67 0.82/0.17 0.91/0.96 0.85/1.43 0.96/0.62 0.73/0.19 0.76/0.24 0.76/0.98 IPSL-CM6A (10%) 0.59/0.64 0.56/1.51 0.74/0.47 0.67/0.47 0.11/0.67 0.79/0.09 0.90/0.56 0.71/0.78 0.98/0.53 0.71/0.13 0.69/0.23 0.77/0.64 IPSL-CM6A (Avg) 0.64/0.73 0.68/1.59 0.79/0.55 0.73/0.57 0.44/0.94 0.81/0.10 0.93/0.70 0.80/1.05 0.98/0.69 0.73/0.15 0.70/0.24 0.80/0.69 IPSL-CM6A (90%) 0.65/0.79 0.73/1.69 0.83/0.65 0.78/0.59 0.59/1.06 0.83/0.11 0.95/0.78 0.84/1.15 0.98/0.82 0.73/0.15 0.71/0.24 0.80/0.73 MPI-GE (10%) 0.59/0.59 0.66/1.15 0.61/0.48 0.69/0.35 0.16/0.87 0.67/0.11 0.88/0.56 0.80/0.59 0.96/0.39 0.61/0.16 0.77/0.21 0.77/0.62 MPI-GE (Avg) 0.67/0.68 0.77/1.35 0.71/0.62 0.76/0.42 0.34/1.15 0.75/0.12 0.92/0.71 0.87/0.80 0.97/0.50 0.65/0.17 0.78/0.21 0.79/0.67 MPI-GE (90%) 0.73/0.78 0.84/1.58 0.78/0.77 0.81/0.48 0.47/1.41 0.81/0.13 0.95/0.86 0.91/1.05 0.98/0.61 0.68/0.18 0.79/0.22 0.81/0.72 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (10%) 0.64/0.58 0.74/1.01 0.70/0.42 0.76/0.35 0.16/0.90 0.67/0.10 0.87/0.60 0.82/0.56 0.97/0.48 0.65/0.15 0.79/0.20 0.79/0.61 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (Avg) 0.70/0.67 0.83/1.20 0.78/0.55 0.81/0.44 0.32/1.11 0.78/0.12 0.91/0.78 0.88/0.78 0.97/0.60 0.68/0.16 0.80/0.20 0.82/0.65 MPI-GE-CMIP6 (90%) 0.74/0.77 0.89/1.44 0.82/0.70 0.86/0.55 0.47/1.37 0.83/0.13 0.94/0.92 0.94/1.03 0.98/0.75 0.71/0.18 0.81/0.21 0.84/0.70 MIROC6 (10%) 0.63/0.74 0.81/1.28 0.79/0.66 0.70/0.64 0.16/0.92 0.83/0.12 0.85/0.60 0.87/0.56 0.96/0.32 0.69/0.14 0.83/0.17 0.82/0.69 MIROC6 (Avg) 0.70/0.87 0.85/1.47 0.85/0.82 0.75/0.81 0.35/1.18 0.86/0.15 0.92/0.77 0.91/0.67 0.97/0.39 0.71/0.17 0.83/0.17 0.84/0.77 MIROC6 (90%) 0.74/0.99 0.88/1.63 0.87/0.94 0.78/0.93 0.47/1.44 0.87/0.17 0.96/0.96 0.93/0.79 0.98/0.48 0.73/0.20 0.84/0.18 0.85/0.84 MIROC-ES2L (10%) 0.67/0.69 0.67/1.32 0.83/0.71 0.74/0.71 0.05/0.93 0.77/0.13 0.78/0.82 0.63/0.61 0.92/0.51 0.67/0.17 0.75/0.21 0.76/0.75 MIROC-ES2L (Avg) 0.71/0.79 0.79/1.48 0.85/0.87 0.79/0.83 0.38/1.13 0.80/0.15 0.83/1.00 0.81/0.82 0.93/0.61 0.69/0.20 0.77/0.21 0.78/0.81 MIROC-ES2L (90%) 0.72/0.86 0.82/1.61 0.86/1.03 0.81/0.88 0.49/1.40 0.82/0.16 0.85/1.09 0.86/0.95 0.94/0.65 0.70/0.22 0.77/0.21 0.80/0.87 EC-Earth3 (10%) 0.46/0.67 0.73/1.15 0.80/0.34 0.70/0.34 0.42/0.74 0.70/0.10 0.87/0.60 0.87/0.61 0.95/0.29 0.52/0.14 0.83/0.18 0.80/0.54 EC-Earth3 (Avg) 0.54/0.73 0.79/1.29 0.85/0.47 0.80/0.39 0.52/0.87 0.76/0.11 0.93/0.69 0.90/0.74 0.97/0.42 0.59/0.16 0.84/0.19 0.82/0.59 EC-Earth3 (90%) 0.57/0.77 0.82/1.38 0.87/0.62 0.83/0.42 0.57/0.98 0.80/0.12 0.94/0.79 0.92/0.84 0.98/0.52 0.63/0.18 0.85/0.20 0.83/0.62